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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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277 FXUS64 KCRP 051104 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 604 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Key Messages: - High risk of rip currents is in effect beginning tonight - Minor coastal flooding may become a concern as early as Saturday as long period swell arrives. Today and Saturday will be our calm before the storm. Today and tonight will remain rain-free, with isolated showers beginning across the Victoria Crossroads Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be in the 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Brush Country. Heat index values will range from 105-109 each day. The effects of Hurricane Beryl will start to reach our coastline late today/tonight as long period swell moves into our area. Swell periods of 15s are expected which will contribute to a high rip current risk along our Gulf facing beaches tonight and Saturday. While the swell heights are expected to remain low through the short term, coastal flooding may rapidly become a concern as the 15s swell arrives. For now, have not issued any headlines for the possibility of coastal flooding but this may need to be addressed in later forecast packages. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Key Messages: - All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl. - Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week. - Hazardous marine conditions continue this weekend into next week. No substantial changes to the inherited Extended range forecast early this morning. As of writing, the center of Hurricane Beryl is close to making landfall in the next few hours over the Yucatan Peninsula. Beryl is then progged to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend. There remains uncertainty in regards to the actual track and intensity of Beryl as it approaches the western Gulf coast, with the 3-day error cone extending from the northeastern Mexican coast into the Corpus Christi area. Nevertheless, preparation for this event remain in order as several associated hazards could impact the region as early as tonight and continue through early next week. Impacts include increased swell heights and periods, potential coastal flooding, High rip currents risk, and medium to high rain chances. Per the latest updates to WPC`s QPF guidance, rainfall amounts of 4-8" with isolated higher amounts will be possible over South Texas through mid week. WPC has also continued to carry a Slight risk of excessive rainfall from Sunday through Tuesday morning over the entire area, indicating at least a 15% chance of flash flooding. SPC has also introduced a Marginal risk of tornadoes mainly for the Sunday night to Monday morning period. Once the system moves through, waves of deeper moisture will aid in maintaining medium rain chances through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 After brief MVFR ceilings over the Brush Country and Coastal Plains this morning, skies will become mostly clear. Light to moderate southeast winds will continue, with wind gusts to around 20 knots this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through Sunday morning, gradually increasing throughout the day as Hurricane Beryl approaches. While uncertainty is still high on timing and actual track, elevated seas up to 13 feet occasionally to 17 feet can be expected late this weekend into early next week with strong winds as Beryl approaches the northeastern Mexico and South Texas coastlines. Rain chances will increase Sunday with medium to high chances hanging around through mid to late next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 77 94 79 / 0 0 10 10 Victoria 98 76 97 76 / 10 20 30 10 Laredo 101 76 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 99 74 98 75 / 0 0 10 10 Rockport 92 81 93 82 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 101 77 101 78 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 96 76 96 78 / 0 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 91 81 91 83 / 0 0 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM....ANM AVIATION...LS/77