389
FXUS64 KCRP 080544
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1244 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

With Beryl moving north and almost to the latitude of Corpus
Christi, the hurricane warnings south of Port Aransas have been
cancelled, and replaced with Tropical Storm Warnings. The dry air
has been wrapping into the storm all day, with the best look for
it now with the eye wall on radar beginning to almost complete the
circle. The expectation, however, is that the moisture will begin
to push out the day air, and will allow the storm to intensify
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should continue to monitor the
progress of Beryl

- Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week.

- Hurricane Warnings, Storm Surge Warnings and Tropical Storm
  Warnings are in effect along the Middle Texas Coast

Beryl is the main concern for tonight and into Monday as the storm
moves north through the Gulf to near Matagorda Bay early Monday
morning. Beryl has been slowly deepening this afternoon and is
still expected to increase to category 1 hurricane overnight, and
rapid intensification is still possible before landfall. Therefore
we still cannot rule out the strengthening into a low end category
2 hurricane. Dry air remains present in the inner core of the storm,
keeping intensification on the slower side at this time. However, the
environment should become more favorable for significant
intensification to a occur before landfall overnight into Monday
morning. The official NHC guidance has only shifted slightly east, with
confidence increasing on a landfall over the Mid to Upper Texas coast,
focusing around Matagorda Bay.

Outer rainbands associated with Beryl have continued to slowly move
into the Middle Texas Coast and Coastal Bend, causing local conditions
to deteriorate throughout the day. Hurricane Warning areas remain
unchanged, and Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect along the islands
and coastal portions from Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine
Pass, TX, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston
Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for the Coastal Plains
including inland Kleberg, inland Nueces, inland San Patricio, Bee, and
Goliad Counties. There are also several additional hazardous impacts
across the region.

The storm conditions will diminish on Monday as Beryl moves from
the Texas Gulf Coast to southeast Texas and East Texas by Monday
evening. Monday night looks to be quiet as high pressure briefly
builds into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tuesday, the moisture still remain over the region, but any
precipitation doesn`t look like would happen until overnight
Tuesday (Brush Country) or Wednesday over the forecast area with
showers and thunderstorms from sfc trough and 500 mb trough moving
through South Texas. The sfc trough continues over the region
Thursday allowing for more scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This pattern with the stalled sfc trough over the region allows
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Hurricane Beryl continues to move northward toward the Matagorda
area. Most of the rain is currently over the waters and
approaching the VCT TAF site. The highest chance for TSRAs is
across the VCT area as rain bands rotate around Beryl through the
overnight hours. Showers remain possible across CRP, with the
lowest chances for ALI. Generally expecting MVFR conditions with
periods of IFR through the night across VCT, then improving by mid
to late Monday morning. MVFR conditions also expected to prevail at
CRP with possible showers through early morning. Brief MVFR CIGs
expected at ALI. COT and LRD are expected to remain VFR through
the TAF period with the eastern TAF sites following suit through
Monday morning as Beryl exits the area. Additional, isolated to
scattered showers are possible during the day across the eastern
TAF sites. Strongest winds are expected at VCT over the next
several hours as Beryl moves just east of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical storm Beryl continues to produce tropical storm
conditions over the waters. The storm is slowly deepening, so winds
are expected increase this evening into tonight. Hurricane
conditions are expected tonight into early Monday with wave
heights up to 17 to 22 feet. Gradually improving conditions can
be expected by mid-week. Expect widespread showers and
thunderstorms through Monday, with scattered thunderstorms
lingering through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  79  92 /  10  20  10  50
Victoria          74  92  76  91 /  20  40  20  70
Laredo            80 101  79  97 /  10  10  20  40
Alice             77  98  77  95 /  10  20  10  60
Rockport          80  93  80  92 /  20  20  20  60
Cotulla           80  99  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
Kingsville        78  97  79  94 /  10  20  10  50
Navy Corpus       81  91  81  90 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ232-233-242>246-342>346-442-443.

     Hurricane Warning for TXZ234-247-347-447.

     Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ233-234-245>247-346-347-
     447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ245-342>345-
     442-443.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

     Storm Surge Warning for TXZ347-447.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-250.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ236-237-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...TE/81