Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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604 FXUS61 KCLE 032315 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 715 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update... .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the lake tonight and stall near the Ohio River on Thursday. Low pressure will then develop west of the Great Lakes on Friday and will lift the stalled front north as a warm front. The low will extend a weak cold front across the lake on Saturday afternoon, followed by high pressure by Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 710 pm update... We have decreased the hourly POPs from now through the rest of the overnight. We knocked them down from likely to chance POPs or 20 to 40 percent for the rest of the evening. We are expecting mostly a quiet evening with a few additional showers and isolated storms that could redevelop but most locations will remain dry. Previous discussion... Main concern of the near term period will be over the next several hours as a line of pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms roughly along and east of the I-71 corridor continues to move east. For the most part, this line remains sub-severe with the exception of a more-dominant cell moving east across portions of Summit/Portage counties. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with this cell. Otherwise, the most recent WOFS runs suggest that strong winds will remain possible along and east of the I-77 corridor through the rest of the afternoon associated with this line, albeit remaining sub- severe, generally 50 mph or less. Given the unfavorable mid-levels and widespread cloud debris behind this initial line of storms, not anticipating much redevelopment along and ahead of the actual cold front, currently located on a SW to NW axis just east of Chicago. This should result in a relative lull in precipitation for much of the area this evening and overnight as the weak cold front sags east to southeast through the area and stalls just south of the US-30 corridor. For Thursday (July 4), we`ll be monitoring another decaying convective complex across portions of IL/IN for any redevelopment of showers and storms across our area in the afternoon and evening hours. There remains a disparity between hires models on precipitation placement for the 4th, and will be dependent on where the cold front eventually settles/stalls this evening and overnight. Confidence remains low on the cold front placement on Thursday, though it appears precipitation chances are more likely along and south of the US-30 corridor. Temperatures on the 4th are expected to be seasonable, in the mid-80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure system will be occluding as it tracks into the Great Lakes Friday bringing the highest chances of showers and storms through the day 2-7 forecast. Dewpoints into the lower 70s and temperatures into the mid 80s will increase the SBCAPE to around 1500J/kg, combining with an increase in the low level winds ahead of the cold front for a thunderstorm threat for the CWA. Also noting significant drying above around 600mb with inverted V soundings introduces a wind threat with the storms. Will be watching to see how this unfolds in the upcoming forecasts and whether it all comes together, or conversely, factors that could hinder the threat for the day. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier airmass filters in, knocking the dewpoints and temperatures down 5-10 degrees for Saturday. Not much in the way of POPs for Saturday across the CWA, but may need to add some in for the cold pool convective chances with some lingering CAPE sandwiched above the boundary layer and below around 750mb. Question will be if there is enough layer humidity to produce precipitation. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will be decaying as it moves through the Ohio Valley region, but will keep the CWA dry through Monday. Flow aloft turns southwesterly ahead of an upper level trough and an accompanying surface low pressure system/cold front that will move in Tuesday. This will become the next chances for showers and storms for the region, and with winds turning southerly, temperatures will be increasing through the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. We will have some high and mid level clouds passing through our skies but should mainly be above 5000 feet. There could be a few hours late tonight between 8z and 12z of light fog with visibilities around 5sm. Otherwise, we are basically not expecting much in the way of impactful weather with this update. Winds will be south or southwesterly 5 to 10 knots. A weak cold front will try to slide through by early Thursday morning which may shift the winds from the west or northwest 5 to 8 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Friday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds tonight become light and variable Thursday, then southeasterly Thursday night with wave heights less than a foot after tonight. Winds southerly Friday 10-15kts ahead of a cold front capable of producing thunderstorms moving through west to east, becoming southwesterly 15-20kts Friday night. Wave heights increase to 1-3ft in the nearshore waters east of Cleveland, and 1- 3ft away from the immediate shoreline west through the islands to Toledo. by Saturday morning. Winds ease out of the northwest Sunday with waves 1-2ft. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Griffin/Kahn SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...26/Sefcovic