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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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767 FXUS61 KCLE 290712 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 312 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system moving through the northern Great Lakes will extend a cold front across the area by tonight. High pressure will build behind the cold front for Sunday into Monday. A warm front will move through the region on Tuesday, followed by another cold front on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Active weather is expected across the forecast area today with flooding and severe weather hazards in play across the region. Showers with some embedded thunder have moved into the forecast area this morning and will continue to fill in, especially along the Lake Erie shoreline and Northwest Pennsylvania, where the best moisture convergence is occurring to promote new storm development. The I-90 corridor may end up having a few bouts of heavier rain this morning, given the current trajectory of storm development and will be highly scrutinized for future flood advisories and warnings, as the axis of heaviest rain for the early morning will favor this region. Development will expand southward later this morning with most of the eastern forecast area seeing a brief round of moderate to heavy rainfall. The overall threat for severe weather during the morning hours is low. While there is some ample wind shear across the region with the strong low level jet overhead, there is almost no instability to work with to get strong convective cores that would support a damaging wind threat. However, the shear with convection on the scope would not entirely preclude some rotation, but given that most of the convection this morning remains elevated, unless there is something that could make a storm more surface-based, the overall threat appears low through the morning hours. For this afternoon, the trend from the 00z guidance is a bit more concerning for a severe weather threat. There should be a minor reprieve of shower and storm activity that will ripple across the area before another round of showers and storms form. This brief window of no rain activity could allow just enough recharge of the atmosphere to get some instability to form across the region, and in turn, surface based strong to severe storms. Luckily, the better jet energy is departing to the northeast during the daytime hours and the better wind shear will be pulling away from the region. With that, expect shower and storms with a wind and perhaps a tornado threat to develop from about 11 AM in Northwest Ohio to exiting into western PA by about 6 PM. Convective cores will also disperse heavy rain across the region, fueled by PW values above 2" and warm cloud depth over 13k ft. Areas of Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA that receive repeated rounds of rain today will be at risk for flooding and the Flood Watch is valid through 8 PM tonight. The main cold front is delayed and will cross the forecast area during the nighttime hours and some scattered rain showers could redevelop with the frontal passage. The main area for these would be Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania and have low PoPs to account for this. Residual clouds in the region will prevent temperatures from all out plummeting with the cold frontal passage and have lows in the 60s tonight. The front departs for Sunday and high pressure will build into the region. Dry conditions with a cold advection regime will battle the diurnal cycle on Sunday and flatlined highs in the mid 70s is the best forecast at this time. Some clouds will hang around in the eastern portion of the forecast area through the day with the upper trough axis moving through the region, but the lack of lower level moisture should prohibit any showers from forming. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quiet short term period in store as high pressure settles over the region. Some cloud cover will persist along the lakeshore Sunday night under northerly flow with chilly overnight lows dipping into the lower 50s. The high becomes more established overhead by Monday morning with below normal temperatures persisting through Monday night. Afternoon highs on Monday afternoon rise to the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows Monday night settling in the mid 50s. High pressure builds east as a warm front draped across the Mississippi River Valley begins to lift east into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night. This will allow for broad southerly flow and WAA to bring afternoon highs on Tuesday to the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warm pattern with daily opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorm looks to set-up for the long term forecast. A broad upper level ridge will extend north into the region on Wednesday before a shortwave trough crosses the Central Great Lakes and pushes that ridge axis towards the East Coast. While the atmosphere may be capped until later in the afternoon or evening on Wednesday, a cold front settles south into the area late in the day and may provide a focus for some shower and thunderstorm activity. Wednesday still appears to be the hottest day of the week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s in NW Ohio. The humidity is expected to make a quick return on Wednesday ahead of that front. Chances for thunderstorms continuing into the 4th of July holiday will depend on how far south the front pushes before stalling. Chances for thunderstorms look higher towards Central Ohio during the day then potentially lifting back north into Thursday night as shortwave energy is forecast to move around the ridge again. Chances of thunderstorms look to continue into Friday but will need to refine pops and timing as we get closer in time. High temperatures will be near climatological highs for early July in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Very active aviation weather period with multiple rounds of showers and storms across the region today. The first round of rain has already entered Northwest Ohio and will continue to spread east across the terminals. Through the early morning hours, rain will fill in and pick up in intensity and also carry some embedded thunder and lightning. Rainfall intensity will be the dominant reason for any VFR conditions for the first half of the day with rain reducing visibility. However, some brief non- VFR ceilings are also possible. The main slug of heavy rain will move northeast this morning and allow for a brief reprieve from the heavier rain moving through the region. Unfortunately, this reprieve may recharge the atmosphere just enough to allow another round of robust showers and storms to move through the area and have timed a more impactful window of TS across the terminals from late morning through late afternoon. For the eastern terminals, have also included a window for stronger winds with the TS as storms could have a severe threat with them. The bulk of the convection will move east through the evening hours and ceilings will try to fall to MVFR before lifting back to VFR as the cold front moves through the terminals late in the TAF period. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Winds develop out of the south this morning, likely accompanied by widespread showers and thunderstorms, as a warm front lifts north across the lake. Heavy rain and frequent lightning are possible with thunderstorms this morning. This will be followed by a cold front and wind shift to the northwest late tonight into Sunday. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots on Sunday will make for choppy conditions near Small Craft criteria with waves of 3-4 feet and moderate to high swim risk. High pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday with decreasing northeast winds on Monday and winds veering around to the southeast on Tuesday. The next week front is forecast to cross Lake Erie late Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ010>014-020>023- 031>033-038-089. PA...Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ001>003. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Iverson LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...KEC