![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
544 FXUS61 KCLE 292052 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 452 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the region late tonight. High pressure will build behind the cold front Sunday through Monday. A warm front will lift northward across region Tuesday, followed by another cold front passing through Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The weather has calmed down after a broken line of showers and a few severe thunderstorms moved across the area. Currently, we have some subsidence over the area behind the impulse that caused the earlier convection today. As we head into this evening, model guidance has been indicating the potential for some scattered convection to redevelop between 6 pm and 10 pm later this evening as the cold front starts to move into northwest Ohio. The cold front is not well defined at this time over northern Indiana and Lower Michigan. This surface boundary will become slightly better defined later this evening as it starts to make a push eastward. The atmosphere closer to NWOH has become increasingly unstable with MLCAPE values approaching 2500 to 3000 j/KG and plenty of shear up to 45 knots. The one missing component is a trigger or healthy boundary to get convection to fire up. We will maintain a 30 to 40 percent POPs through the late evening for additional scattered showers and convection to try to develop near the advancing cold front. A marginal to slight risk for isolated severe convection may continue into the late evening with the better potential being near NWOH. The atmosphere will slowly stabilize as we go further into the overnight and any evening convection will likely lose their energy as they move eastward across northern Ohio. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard if any stronger storm can get organized this evening. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible with any slow moving convection. We have left the Flood Watch as is through the mid evening because of the possibility of additional rainfall. Sunday will be much cooler behind the passage of the cold front tonight. We will have some clouds with breaks during the morning but skies will gradually become partly cloudy to fair skies later in the day. High temperatures will be below average for the last day of June, in the lower to middle 70s. High pressure will build over the Great Lakes region Sunday night with clearer skies. Overnight temps Sunday night will be cool in the lower and middle 50s away from the lakeshore. A few upper 40s could be possible in the cooler prone valleys of NEOH and NWPA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Regions will bring a very nice weather day on Monday with sunshine and low humidity. High temps will continue to be below average in the lower to middle 70s for Monday afternoon. The high pressure system will move eastward towards New England on Tuesday and a southerly flow will return. The humidity and warmer temperatures will also come back starting Tuesday. High temps will be back in the lower to middle 80s areawide. NWOH and the Cleveland metro area may be back in the upper 80s and feeling summerlike by Tuesday afternoon. Dry weather is expected to start off the new week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next system to bring rainfall and unsettled weather will arrive late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A weak cold front will sag southward through the Great Lakes region Wednesday afternoon and slowly push through northern Ohio and NWPA Wednesday night. This will be our next chance for showers and storms. Model guidance is showing that this frontal boundary will become parallel with the mid and upper level flow by Thursday of next week. This frontal boundary will likely stall out from west to east across Ohio and may waffle around Thursday into Friday. We will have to keep an eye on any mid level impulses tracking through the westerly flow that may help develop rounds of convection near this stalled front late in the week. There is a signal for that kind of setup in the model guidance. Temperatures will be near or above average through the end of next week and feeling summery during the July 4th Holiday. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... We have active weather moving through NEOH and NWPA this afternoon causing some impacts to aviation through roughly 21z. A broken line of heavier showers and embedded strong to severe convection is moving through our far NEOH and NWPA areas but recent trends indicate this weather system has been slowly weakening and a couple hours from moving out of our local area. We have some MVFR to possibly brief IFR conditions from these showers and storms for YNG, ERI, and CAK through 20z. There are TEMPO groups highlighting this timing and brief drops in ceilings and visibility due to heavier showers and storms. We will see improving conditions slowly moving from west to east across the areas that are being impacted with convection early this afternoon. VFR ceilings and conditions will return for all TAF sites by late this afternoon into the evening. We will have a weak cold front push through after 06z tonight with a wind shift from southwest winds to northwest winds during the predawn hours of Sunday morning. Southwest winds will be between 8 and 12 knots through early this evening with some afternoon gusts up to 20 or 25 knots before sunset. Winds will relax somewhat after sunset this evening ahead of the advancing cold front. Winds will be from the northwest 10 to 15 knots Sunday morning through the end of the TAF period or midday Sunday. Gusty winds up to 25 knots will return after 15z Sunday morning. Ceilings may drop to MVFR with the passage of the cold front and for a few hours behind the front through the mid morning Sunday. Ceilings will lift up to VFR category by late morning. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .MARINE... A cold front will move across Lake Erie late tonight. A wind shift from the northwest will follow behind the frontal passage late tonight into early Sunday morning. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected Sunday and will make for choppy conditions. Conditions may be near Small Craft criteria with waves of 3-4 feet and moderate swim risk are possible for the central and eastern lakeshore waterways. Winds will start to decrease Sunday night as high pressure starts to build over the Great Lakes. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern Monday and Tuesday. Winds will become northeasterly by Monday and winds veering around to the southeast on Tuesday. The next week front is forecast to cross Lake Erie late Wednesday or Wednesday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Griffin SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Griffin