688
FXUS61 KCLE 010831
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
431 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge affects our region through Tuesday as the parent high
pressure center moves from the western Great Lakes to southern New
England. This ridge exits eastward Tuesday night as a warm front
sweeps northward through northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. A
weak cold front is still poised to sweep southeastward through our
region Wednesday night and be followed by a weak ridge building from
the western Great Lakes through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A ridge aloft continues to build from the Great Plains and then
begins to crest E`ward over our CWA on Tuesday. Simultaneously, the
surface portion of this ridge continues to affect northern OH and NW
PA as its parent high pressure center moves from the western Great
Lakes to southern New England. Stabilizing subsidence accompanying
the ridge will allow fair weather to persist. Despite CAA continuing
at the surface, daytime heating combined with a lowering and
strengthening subsidence inversion will allow high temperatures to
reach mainly the lower to mid 70`s late this afternoon. Mainly clear
sky and weak winds/low humidity at the surface will promote
efficient radiational cooling this evening through daybreak Tuesday
morning, when lows are expected to reach mainly the 50`s. However,
lows are forecast to reach the upper 40`s in the interior valleys of
NW PA, while the Lake Erie Islands will have lows reach the 60`s
courtesy of a weak onshore surface flow from ~72F Lake Erie reducing
nocturnal cooling. A weak synoptic MSLP gradient and sufficient
daytime heating of surrounding land will allow a Lake Erie lake
breeze to occur during the late morning through early evening hours
of Tuesday. The lake breeze is expected to penetrate up to two miles
or so inland since slight strengthening of the synoptic MSLP
gradient is forecast through the day as the aforementioned surface
ridge interacts with a developing/deepening surface low in vicinity
of the CO plains. Late afternoon highs are expected to reach the
upper 70`s to lower 80`s in NW PA and mainly the lower to mid 80`s
in northern OH as daytime heating is complemented by
developing/strengthening synoptic WAA along the western flank of the
low-level ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Unfortunately, the midweek weather forecast, including the
Independence Day holiday, appears active with likely shower and
thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Storms could have
both severe and flooding potential and will need to be monitored
going forward. Tuesday night will be dry, but temperatures will
remain elevated with warm advective return flow across the region.
This flow will allow for dew points to return into the 60s in time
for Wednesday, when a cold front will approach and cross the region.
The timing of the front will be problematic, approaching the area
during peak heating and as the entrance region of a jet streak
passes to the north. There should be plenty of instability and lift
to allow for widespread showers and storms across the region and
have likely PoPs. The instability will also allow for storms to
reach strong to severe levels and the entire area is highlighted in
a Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe weather and portions of our central
Ohio counties are in a higher level Slight Risk for Wednesday
afternoon/evening. The front will push south Wednesday night but
stall somewhere across Ohio. The trends are that the front will
remain closer to the Ohio River, but any northern trend will allow
for possible repeated rain chances into Thursday. For now, will
blend with the front well south that will just allow for scattered
shower and storm chances on Thursday. Some instability in the region
will allow for some conditional strong to severe storm chances, but
lower confidence than Wednesday at this point. Repeated rounds of
rain on Wednesday and Thursday will pose a flooding threat for some
of the area. Temperatures will be warm ahead of the cold front on
Wednesday, likely into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Temperatures
will be more seasonable on Thursday in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue into Friday and probably
Saturday as well. The front from mid-week over the Ohio Valley will
get lifted back north across the area on Friday, as a low pressure
system moves through the Great Lakes region. Have a mix of chance to
likely PoPs on Friday to account for this synoptic setup. The low
will trail a cold front across the region on Saturday, which could
generate some scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and
have some lower PoPs in the 20-30% range. Some form of high pressure
will enter the region for Sunday and will likely end up allowing for
a dry day in the forecast. There is some disagreement on the arrival
of the next system early next week, which will prevent a dry
forecast for now, but believe that Sunday will trend to dry.
Temperatures appear seasonable in the mid 80s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Mainly VFR expected through 06Z/Tues as a ridge aloft continues
to build from the north-central U.S. and vicinity. Simultaneously,
the surface portion of this ridge continues affecting our
region as the core of the surface ridge moves from the western
Great Lakes toward central NY. Primarily N`erly to NE`erly
regional surface winds around 5 to 10 knots are expected through
06Z/Tues.

Few to broken lake-effect stratocumuli will continue to stream
generally S`ward and then SW`ward from Lake Erie through
~15Z/Mon before dissipating due, in part to continued low-level
dry air advection. Pockets of MVFR ceilings are expected with
the lake-effect clouds.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in periodic showers and thunderstorms
this Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Locally enhanced north to northeast flow over the central basin of
Lake Erie will allow for 4 ft waves to continue over the next couple
of hours and have the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards
Statement continuing through 8 AM. Northeast flow will diminish
through the day today as high pressure settles into the region and
marine weather conditions will improve through evening. High
pressure will move east for Tuesday and southeast return flow will
start to overtake Lake Erie. A warm front will approach the lake
during the daytime hours and likely hang around the southern shore
by afternoon, allowing for more easterly flow over the water and
southeast flow on land for a brief period. The front will clear the
lake on Tuesday night and southerly flow will be favored, increasing
on Wednesday as a cold front approaches. There could be a need for a
brief Small Craft Advisory on Wednesday with the stronger offshore
flow. The cold front will cross the lake by Wednesday night and
light westerly flow will become favored across the basin. The front
will stall over the Ohio Valley for Thursday and light generally
offshore flow will be favored. This front will get lifted back north
toward and across the lake on Friday and southerly flow will be
enhanced a bit. There will be shower and storm chances for Wednesday
through Saturday with an unsettled weather pattern in place. Some
storms may need a short fused marine warning headline, especially on
Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sefcovic