296
FXUS61 KCLE 021959
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
359 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridge builds to the east as low pressure centered over
the Midwest lifts a warm front across the region tonight. This low
will then drag a cold front east across the region during the
afternoon and evening on Wednesday. The cold front will stall south
of the area for Thursday leaving unsettled weather across the region
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather will continue through tonight as an upper ridge and
surface high pressure build toward the East Coast. By tonight, a
warm front will begin to lift northeastward through Northern
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. This front will usher in warm
and moist air with warm overnight lows settling in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Surface low pressure over the Great Lakes will
drag a cold front across the region Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The front will be entering a warm and moist environment
characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees, dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and MUCAPE
values ranging between 1500-2000 J/kg. The chance for showers
with scattered thunderstorms will increase along and ahead of
the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, generally between 2
and 10 PM. For now, our entire forecast area remains in a
Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather with a primary
hazard of damaging wind gusts. There remains some uncertainty
with how much cloud cover will move overhead Wednesday morning
and early afternoon. Additional cloud cover would inhibit
daytime heating which would lead to lower afternoon highs and
less instability, therefore decreasing our severe weather
potential Wednesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday night,
the front will cross through the region before stalling south of
the local area. Multiple upper level shortwaves will move along
the frontal boundary and keep shower and thunderstorm chances
across the Ohio Valley into the short term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A stationary front sags to the south on Thursday and Thursday night.
Model guidance has been trending southward, so right now expected
scattered showers and thunderstorms along and south of US-30 during
the day Thursday. 20-40% PoPs areawide Thursday night as this front
lifts northward as a warm front.

By Friday, an upper-level trough/closed low approaches from the
west, with the upper low centered over Wisconsin by Friday
afternoon. At the surface, low pressure becomes collocated with the
upper-low, with the warm front extending from this low lifting north
across the region late Thursday night into early Friday morning,
placing the entire area in the warm sector. Most models have a moist
environment with dew points rising into the low 70s within the warm
sector on Friday, contributing to MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Modest
mid-level southwesterlies will result in deep layer shear of around
35-45 knots. There is a good chance for organized convection with at
least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low chance PoPs linger on Saturday as wrap-around moisture from the
upper low moves in but high pressure builds in by Saturday night and
Sunday before departing to the east Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday
will feel like summer as it gets hot and humid with daily low
chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions remain across all terminals through the period
as a ridge of high pressure gradually builds eastward. Showers
and scattered thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. The bulk of the showers
and storms will occur outside the current TAF period but have
begun to mention -SHRA at western terminals (~16Z) and VCTS in
the KCLE 30 hour TAF.

Southeasterly winds 8-10 knots will turn southwesterly
overnight tonight before increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts
20-25 knots by late Wednesday morning. There remains to be a
lake breeze impacting KERI this afternoon with the expectation
that winds will return generally southerly by 00Z/Wed.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic/scattered
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly flow this evening becomes southerly as a warm front lifts
north across the region. Southerly flow of around 15 knots is
expected tonight into Wednesday morning, with flow approaching 20
knots in the eastern basin. Considered a small craft advisory for
the eastern nearshore zones but given low confidence and low impact
of the timing, decided against issuing. Will give more consideration
to it based on additional observations and model guidance later this
evening.

Beyond tomorrow, relatively quiet conditions are expected, and
should be a relatively calm Lake Erie for 4th of July. Next chance
for stronger winds won`t be until Friday night into Saturday when a
cold frontal passage brings the chance for 20+ knot southwest to
west winds.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Saunders