318
FXUS61 KCLE 030538
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
138 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridge builds to the east as low pressure centered over
the Midwest lifts a warm front across the region tonight. This low
will then drag a cold front east across the region during the
afternoon and evening on Wednesday. The cold front will stall south
of the area for Thursday leaving unsettled weather across the region
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1:38 AM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance.
No changes appeared necessary.

Previous Discussion...

Quiet weather will continue through tonight as an upper ridge
and surface high pressure build toward the East Coast. By
tonight, a warm front will begin to lift northeastward through
Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. This front will usher
in warm and moist air with warm overnight lows settling in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Surface low pressure over the Great
Lakes will drag a cold front across the region Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The front will be entering a warm and
moist environment characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s
to near 90 degrees, dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
and MUCAPE values ranging between 1500-2000 J/kg. The chance for
showers with scattered thunderstorms will increase along and
ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, generally
between 2 and 10 PM. For now, our entire forecast area remains
in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather with a primary
hazard of damaging wind gusts. There remains some uncertainty
with how much cloud cover will move overhead Wednesday morning
and early afternoon. Additional cloud cover would inhibit
daytime heating which would lead to lower afternoon highs and
less instability, therefore decreasing our severe weather
potential Wednesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday night,
the front will cross through the region before stalling south of
the local area. Multiple upper level shortwaves will move along
the frontal boundary and keep shower and thunderstorm chances
across the Ohio Valley into the short term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A stationary front sags to the south on Thursday and Thursday night.
Model guidance has been trending southward, so right now expected
scattered showers and thunderstorms along and south of US-30 during
the day Thursday. 20-40% PoPs areawide Thursday night as this front
lifts northward as a warm front.

By Friday, an upper-level trough/closed low approaches from the
west, with the upper low centered over Wisconsin by Friday
afternoon. At the surface, low pressure becomes collocated with the
upper-low, with the warm front extending from this low lifting north
across the region late Thursday night into early Friday morning,
placing the entire area in the warm sector. Most models have a moist
environment with dew points rising into the low 70s within the warm
sector on Friday, contributing to MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Modest
mid-level southwesterlies will result in deep layer shear of around
35-45 knots. There is a good chance for organized convection with at
least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low chance PoPs linger on Saturday as wrap-around moisture from the
upper low moves in but high pressure builds in by Saturday night and
Sunday before departing to the east Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday
will feel like summer as it gets hot and humid with daily low
chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A ridge at the surface and aloft exits E`ward through ~14Z/Wed
and is followed by W`erly flow aloft, embedded disturbances, and
surface troughing. A surface warm front continues to sweep
N`ward through our region through ~14Z/Wed. In addition, a weak
cold front is expected to drift ESE`ward into our region after
23Z/Wed and near a KPCW to KFDY line by 06Z/Thurs. SE`erly winds
around 5 to 10 knots veer to S`erly and increase to 10 to 15
knots with the passage of the warm front. The S`erly to SW`erly
winds are expected to gust up to 20 to 25 knots between ~15Z and
~23Z/Wed. The cold front passage will cause SW`erly winds around
5 to 15 knots to veer to W`erly.

Primarily VFR are expected through the TAF period. Periodic
upper-level ceilings early this morning are expected to lower
to mid-level ceilings and then low-level ceilings near 5kft AGL
in a somewhat sporadic fashion from WSW to ENE between ~12Z and
~16Z/Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
along/ahead of the cold front, especially after 19Z/Wed.
Showers/storms are expected to move generally E`ward across our
region. Brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots
and brief MVFR/IFR are expected with showers and especially
storms.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic/scattered
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly flow this evening becomes southerly as a warm front lifts
north across the region. Southerly flow of around 15 knots is
expected tonight into Wednesday morning, with flow approaching 20
knots in the eastern basin. Considered a small craft advisory for
the eastern nearshore zones but given low confidence and low impact
of the timing, decided against issuing. Will give more consideration
to it based on additional observations and model guidance later this
evening.

Beyond tomorrow, relatively quiet conditions are expected, and
should be a relatively calm Lake Erie for 4th of July. Next chance
for stronger winds won`t be until Friday night into Saturday when a
cold frontal passage brings the chance for 20+ knot southwest to
west winds.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Saunders