185
FXUS62 KCHS 101418
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1018 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will meander across the area through Saturday.
Atlantic high pressure will then rebuild while a surface trough
exists inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will approach from the west today. Aloft, ridging
will persist across the Southeast. Temperatures will warm
quickly this morning, with many areas expected to reach 90
degrees by noon. Temperatures should peak generally in the mid
90s during the mid afternoon. The cold front is expected to push
across the inland counties during the early afternoon hours,
nearing the I-95 corridor by late afternoon. Dewpoints in the
wake of the cold front should fall into the low 70s to upper 60s
this afternoon. However, east of the front, dewpoints will
remain in the mid to upper 70s. The highest dewpoints should
occur across portions of Charleston and Berkeley Counties,
resulting in heat index values in excess of 108 for a few hours
this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Charleston
and Berkeley Counties until 8 PM this evening. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage looks fairly limited today with the
forecast featuring mainly slight chance to chance PoPs, with
highest coverage near the coastal counties this afternoon.
Severe weather is not expected.

Tonight, the cold front is expected to slide over most of the
forecast area. Cooler dewpoints should advance across most of SE
GA/SC, with values in the 60s east of I-95. Min temperatures are
forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak cold front will drift just off the GA coast Thursday,
ushering in a considerably drier airmass, albeit briefly. Aloft,
a relatively weak ridge will persist. Later in the afternoon, a
weak surface wave over south coastal SC will enhance a moist
onshore flow into the Charleston Tri-County Area. The only
chance for convection appears to be over the far eastern zones
and mainly after 2 pm when moisture increases. Temps will be
relatively toasty in the mid 90s, but significantly lower
dewpoints should prevent the need for any Heat Advisories.

A weak surface low over eastern GA will drift northwest on
Friday, taking with it a weak surface front draped across
eastern SC. Moisture will return to the area with PWATs in most
locations back above 2" by midday Friday. Some vorticity may
break off the upper low in northern Florida and lift north
through the area Thursday night and Friday. The sea breeze
should be fairly strong on Friday, pushing well inland during
the afternoon. Scattered convection expected pretty much
everywhere, though better coverage may exist across inland SC
where the sea breeze interacts with the stalled front.

Saturday could be fairly wet as the remnants of the upper low
over Florida lift north into the area. Deep tropical moisture
will stream in from the southeast, pushing PWATs above 2.3". We
will also have the stalled front across the area and a robust
afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak upper trough will exist over the eastern United States
Saturday night through Monday, then a broad upper ridge will
gradually push east. Convective coverage could be slightly
greater than typical summertime, especially through Monday.
Temps will gradually climb, with heat indices getting close to
108 by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lingering MVFR ceilings at KSAV will return to VFR by late
morning. A cold front will approach from the west late this
afternoon and evening. It appears that isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the
cold front. Based on the expected environment, the greatest
potential for convection should occur closer to KSAV compared to
KCHS and KJZI. However, confidence is too low to mention
SHRA/TSRA in the KSAV TAF at this time. Winds are forecast to
remain from the WSW through the daylight hours today. Winds are
timed to veer from the NW by 8Z tonight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms may produce brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The sfc pattern will support southwest winds between 10
to 15 kts. Seas will favor values around 3 ft, with 2 ft see
common within 10 km of shore.

Thursday through Monday, no advisories expected. Winds Thursday
morning may be NW across nearshore waters, then shifting to SW
by afternoon. For the remainder of the period, winds will
generally be southerly at or below 15 kt with seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ045-050-052.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ETM
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JRL/NED
MARINE...JRL/NED