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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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863 FXUS62 KCHS 151043 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 643 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north through late week. Another cold front may approach the area early next week, then remain nearby through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Spotty showers continue to move through the southern marine zones and into a small portion of southeast Georgia around McIntosh County. Forecast has been updated to extend isolated pops across that area through the morning. Previous discussion... Overnight composite analysis reveals upper level ridging stretching from the Great Lakes to the Gulf coast and a downstream trough axis off the southeast coast. Large expanse of surface high pressure and a drier air mass covers much of the eastern CONUS. Gradient of higher low level theta-E air stretches off the Atlantic into southeast Georgia with spotty showers just clipping the far southern part of the forecast area early this morning. Surface high pressure will further expand into the southeast through tonight while northeasterly flow continues to reinforce cooler/drier air across the region. Thus, overall quiet weather is anticipated along with more comfortable conditions. That said, high-res guidance does show some isolated showers popping across southeast Georgia this afternoon. But, given minimal instability and strong capping around 750 MB noted in forecast soundings, keeping with a dry forecast, except for a small area of pops this morning across McIntosh County. Highs today will run 86-90F with slightly cooler readings along the coast. Lows tonight will run from the middle 60s to near 70, warmer along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday: Aloft the region will remain along the eastern periphery of high pressure centered over Texas. A mid-level low pressure center will be positioned just to the west of the Great Lakes, while to the east Tropical Cyclone Ernesto remains well off of the SE coastline. Surface high pressure will be directly overhead on Friday, yielding a dry forecast with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight temperatures will be a little cooler, with upper 60s in many locations and around 70 at the beaches. Saturday and Sunday: Slight ridging aloft will develop along the southeastern coastline through the weekend as the region becomes pinched between the low pressure over the Great Lakes and Tropical Cyclone Ernesto. High pressure will remain the dominant synoptic feature at the surface, however a weak cold front will approach from the west on Sunday. Dry conditions are forecast on Saturday, however rain chances increase into Sunday as the weak cold front approaches. High temperatures both days are forecast to reach into the low 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad troughing aloft will develop late Sunday and into early next week along the Eastern Seaboard as the aforementioned area of low pressure over the Great Lakes pushes towards the NE. At the surface a weak cold front is progged to impact the region early in the work week. Even with the weak cold front, PoPs are limited to around 30- 40% each afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to remain right around normal through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z Friday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Surface high pressure will yield VFR conditions through Saturday. A cold front is forecast to impact the region late this weekend/early next week, bringing the risk of brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Today: Surface high pressure will center across the coastal plain of SC/NC with winds out of the E/NE 10 to 15 kt. Wind gusts up to 20 kt are likely with conditions remaining below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Friday through Tuesday: Surface high pressure will begin to shift away from the local marine waters on Friday, with winds shifting from the NE in the morning to the E/SE by the evening hours. Swell from Tropical Cyclone Ernesto will begin to impact the region on Friday, with seas reaching 5 to 6 ft out to 20 nm, and 6 to 7 ft out to 60 nm in SE GA. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for all marine zones outside of the Charleston Harbor. These Small Craft Advisories may linger into Saturday as swell continues to impact the region. By Sunday the region should be clear of all advisory conditions, with winds generally around 10 to 15 knots, increasing in speed along the coastline in the afternoon hours with the sea breeze circulation. Rip Currents: Long period swell (13 to 15 seconds) from Tropical Cyclone Ernesto is forecast to reach the forecast area on Friday. This in combination with onshore winds will produce a high risk of rip currents at all area beaches on Friday. The threat for rip currents could persist into Saturday as well. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...TBA SHORT TERM...CPM LONG TERM...CPM AVIATION...TBA/CPM MARINE...TBA/CPM