Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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443 FXUS62 KCHS 050535 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 135 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A hot and humid air mass will build over the region late week into the weekend. A weak cold front could approach the region later this weekend and stall over the area through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Rest of Tonight: Quiet/dry conditions will prevail through the night while subtle h5 shortwave energy nudges south across the local area along the eastern edge of a ridge. Few clouds associated with this feature continue to erode, encountering an abundance of dry air in the mid-lvls depicted on nearby soundings. Winds should remain light and/or calm for the remainder of the night, leading to radiational cooling during late hours. As a result, temps should dip into the mid 70s inland, but remain in the upper 70s/near 80 near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A mid-level ridge across the Southeast U.S. will remain in place through the period. The pattern features little distinct surface features; however, generally speaking there is high pressure offshore and trough of low pressure inland. Friday will still feel the influence of the ridge aloft, with a mid-level temperature inversion keeping convection limited especially along the coast. Therefore, the forecast for Friday reflects chance POPs (20-35%) far inland where some deeper moisture begins to creep in. The weekend should be a bit more convectively active. A weak front will approach the region on Saturday but will stay west of the local area. However, as mid-level moisture advection ramps up, we anticipate coverage to follow suite. There could be convection initiation along the sea breeze, but it appears development will trigger via llvl convergence near the inland surface trough/stationary front and then move into the local area from the west. A similar set-up is expected Sunday with the surface front providing focus for convection. High temps will reach the mid to upper 90s Friday away from the coast. Saturday temps will peak in the low to mid 90s, but it will feel even hotter with heat indices approaching the local Heat Advisory criteria of 108 degrees in spots. Some locations could require an Excessive Heat Advisory Saturday. Sunday will be a few degrees cooler, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures will remain mild, in the mid to upper 70s, both Friday and Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging aloft will prevail through the middle of next week with a broad trough to the northwest and a weakening upper low nearing the Southeast US coast. A stationary front looks to remain in the vicinity of the forecast area, setting up across the Midlands. In addition to the sea breeze, the front will provide the focus for convection With plenty of deep moisture in place. At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, with coverage peaking in the afternoon and evenings. Temperatures are forecast to stay slightly above normal, in the low to mid 90s through next week, with lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z Saturday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evenings, this weekend through the middle of next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: Conditions should remain mostly quiet while high pressure over the western Atlantic extends across local waters. However, a bit of nocturnal surging could lead to southerly winds upwards to around 15 kt at times across all waters, before gradually weakening near daybreak. Seas will generally range between 2-3 ft. Friday through Tuesday: Southerly flow will persist through early next week. Marine conditions will stay solidly below small craft advisory criteria with speeds 15 knots or less and seas averaging 2- 3 feet. Rip Currents: A swell of 2 feet every 10 seconds and proximity to the new moon will maintain an enhanced risk of rip currents on Friday. A Moderate risk is forecast at all area beaches. An enhanced risk of rip currents could continue through the weekend. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DPB SHORT TERM...BRM LONG TERM...BRM AVIATION...BRM/DPB MARINE...BRM/DPB