232
FXUS62 KCHS 061307
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
907 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will remain stalled near the area through much of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: H5 riding looks to hold firm across coastal portions of
the Southeast U.S. coast today. Some erosion of its northwest
flanks should occur later this afternoon as a broad cyclonic
flow around the mean longwave trough centered over central U.S.
nudges east. GOES-E water vapor imagery shows a pronounced
moisture plume over the Deep South into the Southeast U.S. with
its eastern edge positioned across Southeast South Carolina and
Southeast Georgia. The greatest chances for showers/tstms this
afternoon/evening will be embedded within this plume where the
best juxtaposition of deep-layered moisture and instability
will be found. Near term guidance suggests convective initiation
across the interior will be delayed about 1-2 hours than what
was expected earlier which should allow for a bit more heating
today. Highs were nudge up about a degree or two west of I-95
given this trend. Highs will range from the mid-upper 90s well
inland to the mid-upper 80s at the beaches and Downtown
Charleston. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s will support heat
indices of 108-112 across much of the area and a Heat Advisory
remains in force from 11 AM until 8 PM. It is possible parts of
the advisory may be cancelled early depending on how convective
evolves through the day.Saturday

Pops ranging from 60-70% across interior Southeast Georgia into
parts of Allendale, Hampton and northern Jasper Counties in
Southeast South Carolina to 5-10% across the immediate Georgia
coast into parts of the Charleston Metro area look on track.
Abundant moisture (PWATs 1.80" coast to 2.40 inland") and
instability (MLCAPE approaching 2500-3000 J/kg) coupled with
weak steering currents will support a risk for locally heavy
rainfall. The biggest hazards with tstms this afternoon/evening
will be gusty winds, heavy rainfall with flooding of low-lying
and poor drainage areas and cloud-to-ground lightning.

Tonight: Convection will gradually wind down this evening.
Warm/humid conditions will persist with lows ranging from the
mid 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown
Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak upper ridge will remain over the Southeast during the
period, though weak disturbances will continuously move
through. Meanwhile, a weak front will remain stalled just
inland. The airmass will be particularly moist during the period
with PWATs generally at or above 2.1". Prevailing S to SE
surface flow will support a robust inland-moving sea breeze each
afternoon. There will be plenty of forcing and moisture to
support numerous showers and thunderstorms, particularly during
the afternoon and evening hours. The greatest coverage is
expected to be across the inland areas. Instability does not
look to be strong enough to warrant a significant severe
thunderstorm risk, though localized flooding is possible due to
heavy rainfall. The weakening upper ridge will bring some
slight relief from the heat, though mid to upper 70s dewpoints
will still push heat indices above 100F each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A relatively wet pattern is likely to persist into late next
week. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place while a series
of shortwaves ripple through. Meanwhile, a weak lee trough will
remain across the Midlands and a robust sea breeze will occur
each afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each
day, with potentially scattered coverage extending well into the
overnight hours. High temps will briefly rise into the mid 90s
by Wednesday, then back to the lower 90s late in the week. We
could flirt with Heat Advisory criteria just about any day,
though our forecast right now keeps most areas below 108 heat
index.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV: Terminal will remain VFR through most of the issuance.
Mid-level high pressure will begin to breakdown this morning
with upper level disturbances to the west and east. A weak lee
side trough (or convergence of surface winds) is again forecast
to take shape across the Midlands of South Carolina. The best
chance of showers and thunderstorms will likely be just west of KSAV,
but KSAV does have a high enough chance to at least maintain the
mention of vicinity thunder.

KCHS/ KJZI: VFR through the issuance expected. Mid-level high
pressure will begin to breakdown this morning with upper level
disturbances to the west and east. A weak lee side trough (or
convergence of surface winds) is again forecast to take shape
across the Midlands of South Carolina. The Charleston terminals will
be to close to the coast (and far enough east) of the inland
forming showers and thunderstorms to preclude the mention of
vicinity thunder.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight: Expect seas around 3 ft with southerly winds
backing from the southeast in the afternoon with a daytime sea
breeze developing. Winds will mainly be 15 kt or less.

Sunday through Thursday, a typical summertime pattern will
prevail. Southerly winds will typically be less than 15 knots
and seas no higher than 4 ft.

Rip Currents: A swell of 2 feet every 9 to 10 seconds and proximity
to the new moon will maintain a Moderate Risk for rip currents
for today (Saturday).

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$