981
FXUS62 KCHS 061916
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
316 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will remain stalled near the area through much of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Convection is slowly building across the far interior this
afternoon where the far eastern flanks of a pronounced moisture
plume observed on GOES-E water vapor imagery has nudged ever to
slightly to the east. This is in response to a slight erosion to
the western and northwestern portions of the H5 ridge that is
currently anchored over the Southeast U.S. coast. Convection
will continue to expand in coverage over the next few hours,
likely peaking just before sunset, then slowly waning through
midnight. Pops ranging from 60-70% across interior Southeast
Georgia into parts of Allendale, Hampton, Colleton and into far
northern Dorchester Counties in Southeast South Carolina to 5-10%
across the immediate Georgia coast into parts of the Charleston
Metro area look on track. Abundant moisture (PWATs 1.80" coast
to 2.40 inland") and instability (MLCAPE approaching 2500-3000
J/kg) coupled with weak steering currents will support a risk
for locally heavy rainfall. The biggest hazards with tstms this
afternoon/evening will be gusty winds, heavy rainfall with
flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas and cloud-to-
ground lightning.

Heat indices have been running a bit high today, ranging from
108-113 as of 06/18z. A few locations have exceeded 113
(Excessive Heat Warning criteria) along parts of the lower
South Carolina coast, but these values have been fairly spotty
and temporally limited so far. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
for all areas through 8 PM, although as convection expands,
parts of the advisory may be cancelled prior to its expiration
time.

Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight with lows
ranging from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the
beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid-level ridge present over the forecast area on Sunday will
slowly begin to weaken into Tuesday with shortwaves rippling
across the southeastern states. At the surface a weak front will
linger in the vicinity. The weakening ridge aloft will yield
temperatures in the low 90s through the short term period. With
dew points in the low to mid 70s heat indices will likely only
reach up to 103, shy of Heat Advisory criteria. With the
lingering front in the vicinity significant moisture will be
available, with PWATs upwards of 2.3- 2.4 inches, which would be
close to the maximum PWAT according to SPC Climatology.
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon, with the threat of heavy rainfall as
PWATs remain elevated. The best coverage for precipitation will
be across SE GA, closer to the stalled front and higher PWAT
values.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The ridging aloft will continue to weaken through the end of
the week, with additional shortwaves rippling across the
southeastern states. Deep moisture will remain in place, with
PWATs well above 2 inches. Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon, mostly driven by a
robust afternoon sea breeze. The current forecast has high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s through the week, resulting
in heat index values between 100 and 106. Heat Advisories later
in the week cannot be ruled out, however at this juncture the
forecast keeps conditions below the 108 criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR. Tstms look to cluster inland of the
terminals this afternoon/evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Southerly winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft will prevail.

Sunday through Thursday: Generally tranquil conditions expected
across the local marine waters through the period. Winds will
average 15 knots or less with seas 2 to 3 ft.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents continues until
8 PM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$