326
FXUS61 KCAR 040452
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1252 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will cross the region overnight through early
Thursday. A weak cold front will stall along the Downeast coast
Thursday night. The front then slowly lifts back north Friday
into Saturday. Another weak cold front will begin to cross the
region Sunday then will move east of the region on Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...
A warm front will cross the region overnight with
scattered/numerous showers across northern areas,
isolated/scattered showers across central areas. An isolated
shower is possible Downeast late. Otherwise, expect mostly
cloudy skies north with partly cloudy skies Downeast. Low
temperatures will range from around 60 to the lower 60s north,
with upper 50s interior Downeast and mid to upper 50s along the
Downeast coast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions
along with expected overnight temperatures, clouds and shower
chances.

Previous Discussion...
PoPs were adjusted for Independence Day to account for
significant dry air aloft that will be moving in from the west-
southwest by mid morning, which despite some CAPE should inhibit
convective development with a strong subsidence inversion in
the low levels and minimal synoptic scale lifting mechanisms.
Moisture trapped under the inversion should still be enough for
scattered to possibly broken stratocumulus, but trended sky
cover down slightly as well with this update, especially across
central portions of the forecast area.

By Thu mid to late morn, most of whats left of any organized
shwr activity will move ENE of the FA as a weak upper s/wv
pivots out. This will leave the FA with ptly to msly cldy skies.
High temps Thu Aftn will reach arnd 80 deg F ovr low trrn lctns
inland from the coast, a few deg cooler than Tdy due to cld cvr
and any shwrs, but with more humid air, may feel more
uncomfortable. At least there will be a srly breeze.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The low pressure to the north will swing the cold front through
the region Thursday night. QPF models are in some disagreement
with the amount of rain showers expected throughout the night.
However, after midnight, the model show that the majority of
rain showers will be out of the region with the cold front. With
ridging out over the waters and the low pressure to the north,
return flow should push the marine layer onshore. The question
will be how far north the fog will move in with the blocking
surface high pressure moving in. In addition, decided to include
light patchy drizzle for the coast with the upper air soundings
showing a moist column through the inversion. By Friday, high
pressure should linger through the morning with the next low
pressure intensifying over the Great Lakes. By the afternoon,
clouds should start to increase with the advancement of the warm
front moving across the waters, then north across the region.
Models indicate some instability with the frontal lift and
daytime heating, so isolated thunderstorms are possible.

By Friday night, showers should decrease with the warm front
moving north, but patchy fog will increase, especially across
the south. After midnight, shower chances will increase again
with the low pressure system moving from W to E. By Saturday,
the low will start to weaken as the rain showers progress. As
the cold front moves in by the afternoon, instability is
expected to increase. In addition, as of this update, models
show PWAT values near 2 inches, which gives concern of localized
heavy rain, especially with any thunderstorms that develop.
Temps expected to be near normal.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The low pressure system is expected to exit to the E by Saturday
night with showers decreasing behind the system after midnight.
Very weak upper level ridging approaches Sunday and remains in
the region through Monday night. The next system is expected by
Tuesday, though the models are in disagreement with the low
pressure system track and timing as well as the cold front to
follow into mid week. Near normal temps expected.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR, except a period of MVFR likely at
KFVE and possible at KCAR/KPQI early to mid Thursday morning
with scattered to numerous showers. Southwesterly low level wind
shear expected overnight into early Thursday morning. South
winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 15 knots overnight.
South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
Thursday.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...VFR/MVFR early. A chance of showers with a
slight chance of thunderstorms north early. Variable conditions
with any thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers Downeast
early. Generally VFR late with showers ending. However,
variable conditions with any fog Downeast. South/southwest
winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.

Friday through Friday night...Generally VFR. Slight
chance/chance of mostly afternoon and overnight showers.
However, variable conditions Downeast with any fog early Friday
then again Friday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR early, then MVFR/IFR. A chance of showers.
Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Variable conditions
with any fog early. Southeast/south winds around 10 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with showers and a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Variable conditions with fog.
South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, in the morning. VFR/MVFR
during the afternoon. A chance of showers. Variable conditions
with morning fog. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sun night-Mon...VFR, with brief MVFR/IFR in patchy fog Sun
night. Light and variable winds.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
overnight through Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA
conditions through this period. Reduced visibilities in nighttime
patchy fog expected.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/MStrauser/VJN
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Norcross/MStrauser/VJN/LaFlash
Marine...Norcross/LaFlash