Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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771 FXUS61 KCAR 020338 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1138 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in through Tuesday, then exits across the Maritimes through Wednesday. A warm front lifts to the north Wednesday night followed by a cold front passing Thursday. Weak high pressure passes to the north Thursday night through Friday. a frontal system approaches Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 11:35 PM Update...The sky is clear and the forecast remains on track. Only minor change was to adjust temps in some of the western valleys where the air has already cooled to the low 50s in some spots. previous discussion Scattered cumulus clouds will begin to dissipate into the evening hours, with clear skies returning tonight under the subsidence of the current ridge of high pressure. Winds will become light tonight, and with persistent clear skies, radiational cooling will allow for low temperatures to fall into the lower 50s to possibly upper 40s in some of the colder valleys of the north. Patchy fog is possible in river valleys across the north late tonight into early Tuesday morning, but will quickly dissipate as the sun begins to rise. High pressure continues into the day on Tuesday, with mostly clear skies allowing for temperatures to lift into the lower 80s across the forecast area. Winds will be fairly light out of the north due to the center of the ridge being overhead. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Deep layered ridging builds over the area Tuesday night, then exits to the east on Wednesday. Associated subsidence should keep things dry. There should be with minimal cloud cover Tuesday night, then a gradual increase in cloud cover on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should be near normal and highs on Wednesday around 5 degrees above normal. A northern stream shortwave passes to the north Wednesday night, depending on exactly how fast the aforementioned deep layered ridge exits will determine how soon Wednesday night any precipitation will arrive. 12z guidance is generally slower with the timing of showers, so have basically delayed onset until after midnight across most of the region. It does appear that the best chance for showers will be across the North Woods and that far SE portions of Downeast Maine should remain dry. Lows Wednesday night should be around 5 degrees above normal. A second northern stream shortwave crosses the area on Thursday. With less moisture to work with than its predecessor, have lower pops, mainly slight chance across the region. There is some indication the region could end up dry, but do not have the confidence to go with a dry forecast at this time. Highs on Thursday should be around 5 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The region should be under a mean zonal flow Thursday night and Friday. Other than possibly some lingering showers across far northern portions of the area, it should be dry. Northern stream ridging crosses the area Friday night. While a minority of the guidance has it transit very quickly and allow for showers to build in late Friday night, the vast majority do not, so only have chance pops Friday night. A weakening northern stream trough approaches Saturday, then passes to the north Saturday night and Sunday. The result should be scattered showers during this time range. A rumble of thunder is also possible mainly in the afternoon/early evening Saturday and Sunday. Northern stream ridging crosses the area Sunday night, then exits to the east Monday. Other than possibly some lingering showers across the North early, Sunday night should be dry. Depending on how quickly the ridging exits to the east on Monday will determine of if showers can develop mainly across the North in the afternoon. Temperatures should be above normal Thursday night through Monday. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions tonight through Tuesday. Winds will be light N to NW tonight, possibly becoming nearly calm late. Patchy fog development possible from KHUL north late tonight. On Tuesday, N to NW winds around 5 kts will persist. SHORT TERM: Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR, except low chance of MFVR in any showers at NW terminals late Wednesday. S winds G15-20KT possible Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday night...MVFR or lower possible. Thursday-Friday...Becoming VFR Thursday. Friday night-Saturday...VFR, except for brief periods of MVFR possible in any showers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria tonight through the day on Tuesday. A few gusts near or just over 20 kts possible. SHORT TERM: Other than some gusts to around 25 kt being possible on Thursday, sub-SCA conditions are predicted on the waters from Tuesday night through Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/TWD/MCB Short Term...Maloit Long Term...Maloit Aviation...AStrauser/TWD/Maloit Marine...AStrauser/TWD/Maloit