794
FXUS61 KCAR 072201
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
601 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west tonight and Monday. A
weak surface trough approaches from the north Tuesday night. Low
pressure then approaches from the west Wednesday through the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
550 pm update...
Ongoing forecast looks good for ending of convective activity
this evening and development of fog across the area tonight.
Denser fog is pushing inland from the Gulf of Maine at this time
and will likely cover much of coastal Hancock and Washington
counties by late this evening.

Previous discussion...
Diurnally driven, single-celled showers and storms will continue
through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening hours
before tapering off tonight. Most showers will remain across the
northern half of the CWA in areas which received more incoming
solar radiation earlier today, though a few isolated rain
showers may cross the Downeast region. The sea breeze moving in
from the coast will aid in keeping the coast drier this evening.
High humidity will continue tonight into the day on Monday, and
these elevated dewpoints will keep low temperatures warm in the
low to mid 60s. Light winds and high humidity tonight will
provide favorable conditions for areas of dense fog to develop
throughout the forecast area, but especially along the coast
and in any river valleys and areas which recently received rain.

High pressure will continue to build in on Monday, lowering the
threat for any shower development. That said, light winds and
breaks in any cloud cover will help temperatures rebound into
the mid to upper 80s across the forecast area, save for the
coast which due to light winds will likely see a sea breeze that
will keep high temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday night into Tuesday will be fairly quiet with ridging
still being the main influence over the weather pattern.
Southwest flow will keep temperatures and dewpoints high, so
muggy conditions are expected to continue. Later Tuesday a weak
front will cross the forecast area and then move offshore. The
instability along the front will kick off thunderstorms through
the region. With an unstable air mass ahead of the front and 40
to 50 kts of bulk shear, the potential exists for a few strong
storms along the front. With a deep warm cloud layer and high
PWATs, these storms may be heavy rain producers, in addition to
posing a risk for hail and gusty winds. The front will move
offshore Tuesday night, bringing a slight cooling and a break in
the weather for the majority of the day on Wednesday. Dewpoint
will remain in the 60s, so in spite of the slight drop in
temperatures, the air will continue to feel muggy for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Wednesday night, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl will have
moved through the central U.S. and will be entrained into the
long wave trough. This will bring a slug of tropical moisture
northward along the east coast, eventually making its way into
New England. Due to the uncertainties with entraining a former
tropical system into a synoptic pattern, there are currently a
wide range of model solutions on when and where exactly this
moisture will move through Maine. However, almost all ensemble
members are currently showing that the heavy precip will
eventually make it over Maine. The heaviest precip could move
over northern Maine as early as Wednesday night or as late as
Friday afternoon. Current forecast continued to use NBM pops,
which paint a broad brush over the forecast area, but this is
mainly a reflection of the uncertainty in location and timing.
Once models come into better agreement, more details will be
provided, but the potential for heavy rainfall for the end of
the week is moderate to high.

During this period, the upper level trough will be shifting
eastward as well and on Saturday, the main front associated with
the synoptic system will move through the area. This will bring
more showers and thunderstorms through. Finally on Sunday,
there will be a brief break as shortwave ridging moves overhead,
but then showers return again with a possible shortwave trough
for Sunday night. The main takeaway from this is that even after
the remnants of Beryl, this remains a rainy pattern through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
6pm update...Looking for shallow fog at all sites...mostly after
midnight except BHB where fog will move in from the ocean this
evening.  Fog will burn off quickly Monday morning.

Previous discussion...
Generally VFR conditions will continue into the
evening hours across all terminals. Showers and possible storms
are expected north of BGR, though a few showers may approach
BGR this evening. Patchy fog may work its way into all terminals
overnight, with the greatest chance at BHB and BGR for LIFR
conditions. Vis and cigs will improve quickly Monday morning and
continue through the day on Monday.

SHORT TERM:

Mon night...VFR, possible lower conditions in late night patchy
fog. Light winds.

Tue and Tue night... VFR, possible MVFR in the afternoon and
evening in thunderstorms. SW winds 15kts becoming W wind 5 to 10
kts.

Weds...VFR. Light winds.

Weds night through Fri...MVFR with possible IFR in showers and
thunderstorms. Light winds becoming SW 10 to 15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
criteria tonight through Monday with seas around 3 ft and light
winds. Visibilities will drop, potentially below 1 SM, tonight
as areas of fog develop with warm humid air over the cold
waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria. Marine fog developing overnight each night
may reduce visibilities below 1 mile.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/MCW
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...AStrauser/MCW/LF
Marine...AStrauser/MCW/LF