Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
257 FXUS62 KCAE 030544 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 144 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Slightly cooler and drier air will remain over the area through tonight. Moisture increases through the week and into the weekend with isolated to widely scattered convection possible each afternoon. Ridging builds into the area late this week and into the weekend resulting in above normal temperatures and Heat Index values near 110 possible. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Dry and seasonably cool tonight. Front remains south of the area with drier air from the northeast leading to clear skies. Some lingering clouds will be possible overnight in the CSRA but mostly clear skies expected. Lows will be in the mid 60s across the north to around 70 in the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Heat Index values up to 105 possible Thursday afternoon Ridging over the Deep South will remain in place through the short term. Surface high pressure will shift off of the East Coast on Wednesday night, leading to increasing moisture for Thursday. With dry air still in place over most of the area for Wednesday we don`t expect much in the way of rainfall. A few showers/storms will be possible across the southern FA but a subsidence inversion will hinder convection. HREF ensemble members show little or no convective coverage across the southern Midlands and CSRA on Wednesday afternoon. With moisture creeping back into the area on Thursday there may be an isolated shower or weak storm, but again the subsidence inversion will hinder convective development. The higher dewpoints and warmer temps expected on Thursday should push Heat Index values into the 100 to 105 range. Reaching Heat Advisory criteria seems unlikely at this time. Highs will warm through the short term with highs in the mid to upper 90s on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message(s): - Heat Advisory Criteria possible Friday through Sunday - Thunderstorm chances increase late this week and this weekend Upper ridging will build eastward over the forecast area in the first half of the long term. Moisture increases through SW flow with mean PWAT values from global ensembles rising to around 2 inches Friday, remaining slightly above normal through the long term. Friday and Friday night: Expect partly cloudy conditions with weak southerly maritime flow increasing the moisture content for the area. Expect an increase in dew point temperatures to the mid 70s. Few showers in the afternoon with low coverage expected due to a capping inversion and ridging aloft. Clouds will slightly offset daytime heating, but expect mid to upper 90`s for high temperatures. Higher humidity for the end of the week will raise peak heat index values above 105 with a max of 110. A weak front will work into the Southeast over the weekend, but will likely remain west of the forecast area, keeping moisture in place. SW flow ahead of the front and convergence from a lee- side trough should promote scattered diurnal convection for the remainder of the long term. However widespread convection is unlikely given the upper ridging. With increasing moisture and warming 850mb temps, we will see highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s this weekend and Heat Index values as high as 110. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected to dominate the period with brief early morning restrictions possible at AGS/DNL. Dry air is slowly retreating this evening as southeasterly low- level flow takes over and advects moisture back into the region. The Augusta and Orangeburg terminals both have seen dewpoints rise back into the low 70s, with the Columbia terminals still holding in the upper 60s. Moisture will continue to advect northward as the surface high shifts eastward to our northeast. As a result, some patchy stratus is possible especially near the Augusta terminals later tonight. This is a good setup for it, and some patchy low clouds have shown signs of development already to their west. So a TEMPO group to MVFR cigs is in there to account for this. Aside from that, high pressure and continued rising heights will favor quiet weather through the day, with southeasterly winds and mostly clear skies expected through the end of this TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture and potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions returns Thursday through Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Key messages(s): -Increased Fire Danger mid to late week. -Rainfall probabilities remain relatively low mid week. Increased fire danger during the Independence Day Holiday week, especially late week as temperatures rise again to well above normal values. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms possibly may aid current dry conditions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... FIRE WEATHER...