908
FXUS62 KCAE 041745
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
145 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms possible again today as a weak surface
boundary sits over the area. Deeper moisture may return to the
region later this weekend with low pressure situated off the
southeastern coast, leading to increased rain chances which will
continue through much of the long term.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Mostly quiet July 4th with only a few showers around in the
  eastern Midlands.

Based on current water vapor imagery, a weak shortwave aloft is
spinning through the area and is what is causing this widespread
upper level stratus. Lower, strengthening northeasterly flow
from 700mb to the surface continues the neutral-dry advection
into the region and as such the PWAT gradient across the area
is steepening a little. The deepest moisture with PWAT`s close
to 2.0" remains mainly east of I-95. Thanks to the weak
shortwave aloft and still sufficient moisture, a few showers are
expected across the eastern Midlands these afternoon and
evening but PoP`s in general are quite low; cannot rule out a
couple brief weak showers into the central Midlands as well.
Otherwise, the gusty northeast winds will continue into the
evening with some frequent gusts over 20 mph likely. Winds will
weaken late this evening and outside of some firework smoke-
haze, no fog is expected overnight into Saturday morning.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Surface low possible off the southeastern coast.
- Isolated showers and storms possible.

A weak surface boundary and developing surface low will remain off
to the east of the forecast area, generally off the southeastern
coast, through the short term.  With pwat values up to 1.75 inches,
there should be enough moisture over the eastern half of the area to
keep at least some scattered afternoon showers and storms in the
forecast. Pwat readings are expected to be lower over the western
counties, so with the slightly drier air any convection will be very
limited. The slight difference in moisture may lead to warmer
afternoon highs across the west compared to readings over the
eastern Midlands.  By Saturday night, moisture should push further
inland as the low off the coast continues to meander.  This will
help to keep at least a chance of rain across much of the area
during the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Moisture returns to the region in the long term

Surface low still expected near the SC coast on Sunday as it
slowly meanders northward. There continues to be a good amount
of uncertainty in the track of the low which will largely
determine our weather through most of the long term. Models seem
to remain split between keeping the low offshore and moving it
away from the area and this slightly drier, or bringing it
slightly inland early next week, then away from the area. This
track would bring a little more moisture and rain chances. For
now, NHC is monitoring any development through the weekend, and
the forecast through the longer term may be determined better
through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Drier air continues to fill in across the area, with some mid-
upper level strato-cu and typical summer cu in place. A couple
of showers are likely across SC and eastern GA this afternoon
and evening, but confidence is too low for any mentions; only
included a VCSH at OGB later this afternoon. Otherwise, gusty
northeast winds will continue throughout the afternoon and
evening, with some gusts 16-20 knots likely to persist out of
the northeast. These winds will weaken late this evening and
generally go light overnight. No fog or stratus is expected for
Saturday morning.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... There is then the possibility of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this weekend into
early next week with the potential for periodic restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...