958
FXUS62 KCAE 110741
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
341 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will be over the area today with moisture and chances
of showers and thunderstorms returning tonight and Friday as an
area of low pressure moves across the southeastern US. After
that, mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity
through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s)

- Drier air moves in for much of the area.

Mostly clear skies across the region as drier air continues to
move into the area. Dewpoints are currently in the mid 60s
across the forecast area however with winds turning more
northerly many locations will see dewpoints in the low 60s by
daybreak. Combined with the mostly clear skies and light winds
radiational cooling conditions are very good however with ground
temperatures well in to the 80s expect overnight lows ranging
from around 70s in the west to the mid 70s in the far eastern
Midlands.

Drier air will be hanging around through the day as the remains
of the surface boundary will be along the coast then moving back
westward this evening and tonight as the high pressure offshore
strengthens. Aiding to the mix will be an upper level trough
pushing into the eastern US however this feature will be
weakening through the day. Overall expect some diurnal cumulus
to develop from the late morning through the afternoon hours
with increasing coverage late this afternoon into tonight as
moisture pushes back into the area. There will be a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into
early tonight in the far eastern Midlands and Pee Dee which will
be spreading westward overnight as the moisture moves further
west. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid
90s and with the drier air in place heat index values will
generally be the same. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Moisture pushes back in for Friday.

Moisture will begin to move back in from the east late Thursday
night into Friday as a weak coastal wave/low that is currently
off the coast begins moving northwestward and eventually inland
across northeastern SC. This will cause an increase in the
rainfall chances by Friday morning, especially over the
northeastern portions of the cwa through Friday night. Lower
rain chances expected further west across the CSRA, with mainly
scattered afternoon convection possible. However can not rule
out that the CSRA remains mostly dry through the entire forecast
period. With the rain and clouds over the north, and less rain
and clouds south, there will be a good temperature difference
across the cwa. Pee Dee only reach the upper 80s at best, while
the CSRA climbs back into the middle 90s again. Heat index
values still forecast to remain below any advisory criteria at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- At least a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day
- Temperatures back up around the century mark again next week.

As we move into the weekend, ridging will build back across the
region. This brings us back to a moist onshore flow. We will
once again move into a more typical summertime convective pattern,
with high moisture content over the region. Highs through the
weekend remaining in the mid to upper 90s. As we move into next
week, highs back around 100, with heat index values nearing
advisory criteria, will be possible through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Mostly clear skies over the area with some cirrus moving through
the terminals. Through the TAF period slightly drier air will be
over the terminals through the day with moisture returning
after 12/00z. This will result in some cumulus developing from
the late morning through the early evening hours with some
additional clouds very late in the period. With the drier air
today convection is not expected. Winds through the period will
be northeasterly at 8 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms each day as well as early
morning fog and stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$