448
FXUS65 KBYZ 031233
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
633 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.UPDATE...

Increased PoPs to account for ongoing showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area this morning. The rest of the forecast is
on track. Matos

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Thursday Night...

Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms continue this morning,
mainly in the southern zones and mountains. An approaching trough
will bring a cold front through the region today, increasing the
chance for showers and thunderstorms to 40-70%. A strong
thunderstorm or two is possible in southeast MT and northeast WY.
Stronger storms will be capable of producing large hail and strong
wind gusts. Highs today will be upper 60s to 70s today, with the
cooler temps out west. The trough will progress into the Dakotas
this evening, leaving some moisture behind. As a result, the
chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
overnight hours with the probabilities between 15-50%, highest
east of Billings. The latest NBM QPF probability of 0.25" or
greater is still 10-50%, highest in the far east. Snow levels over
the Absaroka/Beartooth mtns will drop down to ~9,500 overnight,
snow showers and light accumulations are possible.

Thursday, northwest flow and weak energy will settle over the
Northern Rockies. The chance for showers and weak thunderstorms
is 20-70% (lowest west of Billings), Thursday morning and into the
afternoon hours. The chance for precipitation will decrease by mid-
afternoon, as the last pieces of energy depart the region. Dry
conditions are expected Thursday night for Independence Day
celebrations. High temperatures will be in the 70s and overnight
lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Matos

Friday through Wednesday...

Friday begins with Montana being well sandwiched between a
prominent upper ridge hovering over the west coast, and a brod
upper trough sitting over the Midwest. This entire period could
see weak shortwaves passing through the eastern part of Montana
that each time brings with it a small chance for showers and
storms, but moisture will be limited with these and the shear is
weak, leading to any showers or storms that form to be relatively
lackluster. Saturday currently has the highest chance to see some
precipitation, but only relatively speaking, as Southeast MT only
has a 20% chance for precipitation that afternoon and evening.

The bigger story likely sits on the horizon of this period as we
look at the second half of next week. Confidence is very high by
the second half of week to see the ridge over the west coast
finally move inland and hover over the Rockie`s. This will bring
about very hot temperatures, with at least a small chance for
temperatures to reach 100F Wednesday through Saturday. Enjoy the
cooler temperatures while you can over the next week.

Vertz
&&

.AVIATION...


A few scattered showers and weak thunderstorms continue south of
KBIL this morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms will
develop this morning and into the afternoon as another
disturbance works through the region. A few thunderstorms could be
strong near KSHR, the strongest storms will be capable of
producing strong winds and hail as large as quarters. Mountain
obscurations will be possible with any associated showers and
thunderstorms.

Matos

TS POTENTIAL TIMES TODAY:

KBIL: 19z-00z (30% chance)
KLVM: 18z-06z (40% chance)
KMLS: 18z-06z (40% chance)
KSHR: 18z-06z (60% chance, risk of strong wind & hail)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 053/076 052/084 058/082 055/083 056/091 059/093
    4/T 33/T    01/U    12/T    10/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 072 045/075 046/081 051/082 048/082 051/089 054/091
    4/T 32/T    01/U    02/T    10/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 077 051/076 049/084 052/082 050/083 052/091 055/094
    4/T 44/T    11/U    22/T    10/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 076 055/075 054/081 057/081 056/083 056/088 058/091
    3/T 45/T    11/U    22/T    10/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 075 053/074 053/081 057/081 054/081 055/088 058/091
    5/T 45/T    11/U    22/T    10/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 076 052/074 052/079 054/078 052/079 053/084 056/087
    3/T 47/T    11/U    22/T    01/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 073 047/074 046/081 050/082 049/080 050/088 053/091
    6/T 44/T    11/U    12/T    21/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings