178
FXUS65 KBYZ 040254
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
854 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.UPDATE...

There were isolated strong wind gusts over the forecast area this
afternoon, with thunderstorms producing a 68 mph gust along I-90
at the MT/WY border, 54 mph in Sheridan, and 51 mph in Reed Point.
A few stronger storms produced copious amounts of small hail,
including in the Billings vicinity. The precipitation dropped
afternoon temperatures into the 50s in many areas, not too shabby
for July 3rd.

Convection should continue to diminish in coverage and intensity
as the sun sets. There will continue to be enough energy flowing
through the area (under the deepening trof aloft) to keep at
least a slight chance of showers going through the night though,
mainly over SE Montana. Chances for thunderstorms will become very
low after midnight. With the decoupling of the atmosphere after
sunset, expect patchy fog development over low lying areas where
precipitation occurred. This will be mainly below 3500 feet.
Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
is on tap for tomorrow afternoon. Chambers

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday Night...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to spread south and east over
the area this afternoon. We`ve had lots of pea size hail reports
and heavy rainfall with the thunderstorms, with even nickel size
hail reported near Park City. Expect the showers and thunderstorms
to spread south and east through the evening hours, gradually
decreasing from west to east overnight. The strongest storms will
be capable of large hail and strong winds, mainly near the MT/WY
border from the Bighorn Mountains and south and east where CAPE
and shear are highest (up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 30-40kts of
deep layer shear).

Cyclonic northwest flow over the area and wrap around moisture
working back into the region from an upper low over the Dakotas
will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast for
Thursday, greatest over eastern areas. Snow levels drop towards
9,500 feet tonight into Thursday, with some snow showers and light
snow accumulations possible in the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains.
Precipitation totals over the area through Thursday will generally
range from 0.10-0.50 inches, with locally higher totals under
thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorms decrease into Thursday
evening with most activity done by 9pm MDT. Mainly dry conditions
are expected Thursday night for Independence Day celebrations.
Highs for Independence Day will range from the lower to middle
70s. Close to 10 degrees below normal. STP

Friday through Wednesday...

Temperatures will be on the rise over the long term as an upper
ridge sets up over the west coast. The ridge is expected to
eventually move east by Wednesday with about 85% of models
showing this solution. Tuesday and Wednesday next week will bring
the first chances for reaching 100 degrees. For Wednesday, NBM is
giving a 10-25% chance of getting a temperature over 100 degrees
for locations in low elevation river valleys. Overnight lows are
expected to remain tolerable bringing much needed relief during
the overnight hours. NBM currently does not show any chance of
getting a low temperature above 70 degrees across the region
through Wednesday. Due to these factors the NWS HeatRisk currently
keeps the region in a moderate risk for heat related impacts.
Looking farther out and putting this into context, the lowest
record daily high temperature for Billings on the days of our
expected heat wave is 101 degrees making it unlikely at this time
that we will set any records.

With the ridging to our west there will be a series of waves
passing through our eastern zones. The waves that move through
Saturday will have access to the best moisture bringing a 30%
chance of precipitation for most of the area. The best chances for
precipitation will be for locations farther north and east such
as Miles City and Baker where there is a 50% chance of getting
0.10 inches of precipitation. Overall the long term looks dry with
seasonal temperatures until Monday when we start to switch to
above average temperatures. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...


Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease in coverage
tonight from west to east (thunderstorms possible before 06z).

Patchy fog development is expected after 08z through 15z, mainly
in low lying areas below 3500 feet MSL. This includes KBIL, KSHR,
KMLS TAF locations. Development is most likely from Rosebud county
east where the boundary layer is deepest, but just about any low
elevation river valley will support patchy fog overnight. Where
fog develops expect flight conditions down to LIFR levels.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over the
area once again on Thursday. Mountain obscurations will be
possible with any associated showers and thunderstorms. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/076 052/081 054/085 054/082 056/089 059/092 061/095
    22/T    02/T    22/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 044/074 046/081 048/082 048/082 051/089 054/091 056/094
    42/T    02/T    12/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 050/076 048/082 051/085 051/082 051/089 055/092 057/096
    22/T    12/T    22/W    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 054/074 054/079 054/081 056/080 056/086 058/089 060/092
    34/T    13/T    32/W    11/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 053/074 052/080 054/082 054/080 055/086 057/090 059/092
    44/T    12/T    31/B    11/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 051/071 052/078 051/077 052/078 053/082 054/086 055/088
    46/T    14/T    23/T    11/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 045/074 045/080 048/083 048/078 048/086 052/090 055/092
    23/T    12/T    21/U    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings