Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
496 FXUS65 KBYZ 061946 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 146 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Monday... Showers and thunderstorms will begin to die down around 06Z tonight, lingering longest in the east near the Dakotas border. Sunday will be defined by rising heights as the ridge to our west starts its slow migration to the east. Overall, temperatures will be similar to today in the high 70s to low 80s. Sunday afternoon will see 10-20% Pops across our eastern regions resulting from cyclonic flow and remnant potential vorticity in the area. This is expected to bring showers and general thunderstorms. Monday will continue the trend of rising heights and will be the first step in our temperature climb throughout the week. Most locations can expect temperatures to be in the high 80s to low 90s. Torgerson Tuesday through Saturday... Cluster analysis shows models remain very consistent with high pressure and heat being the main weather feature for the extended. Conditions should primarily be dry with little chance of measurable precipitation, especially at the lower elevations. However, there is a hint of some mid level moisture working up from the south in a weak monsoonal flow pattern. This could bring some (<20% coverage) high based convection, mainly to the mountains by the end of next week. High temperatures are expected to increase from 80 to lower 90s Tuesday to the 96 to 102 range by Thursday. Currently, for most locations over the plains, there is a 50-90% chance of hitting at least 100 degrees by Thursday. Locations along the river valleys have the greatest chance, particularly from east of Billings to Miles City. Additionally, these temps may stick around into next weekend, with a 30-60% chance of 100 or better for the same areas on Friday and Saturday. Heat related products may be needed for the latter part of next week. BT && .AVIATION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the area from through about 03Z this evening. Storms will move from NW to SE and may produce brief MVFR in heavy rain, small hail, and erratic wind gusts. A few sfc gusts may reach 35kt. A few light showers may linger overnight in southeast MT. TS POTENTIAL TIMES AND PROBABILITIES FOR REST OF TODAY: KBIL 20-03Z (25%) KLVM 18-02Z (15%) KMLS 21-07Z (20%) KSHR 20-03Z (45%) BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 054/080 055/089 060/091 061/096 064/102 065/098 066/098 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 11/U 11/U LVM 048/080 050/088 054/090 056/095 060/098 059/096 059/096 21/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B HDN 051/080 050/089 055/091 057/096 060/102 064/099 063/099 11/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 10/U 10/U MLS 055/080 055/086 058/089 060/093 064/099 067/099 067/098 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 4BQ 054/077 053/086 057/088 059/093 064/100 067/101 068/099 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 10/U BHK 052/078 053/084 055/087 056/088 061/096 062/097 063/095 11/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U SHR 049/077 049/085 053/088 054/093 059/099 061/099 061/098 12/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings