Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
839 FXUS65 KBYZ 051936 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 136 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .DISCUSSION... Tonight Through Sunday... Thunderstorms affecting the region today will likely start to move out of the area around 03Z tonight as the front moves off to the east and the environment becomes more strongly capped. This will bring in higher pressure and some cold air advection tonight acting to lower temperatures a few degrees for Saturday. Saturday will see another wave move through the region that will also bring some weak cold air advection acting to keep temperatures in the 80s for Saturday and Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will get going in the late morning hours tomorrow. Instability will be limited with generally <500J/kg of CAPE with shear in the 30-40kt range. The lower levels of the atmosphere will be dry with dewpoints in the 30s for many areas. There will also be a lack of strong forcing helping to limit the severe storm risk. NCAR neural network is not showing any chance for severe weather tomorrow, although isolated small hail and strong wind gusts can`t be ruled out. Sunday looks to be calmer with clear skies for most as upper ridging to the west keeps sliding to the west putting us in rising heights. Torgerson Monday through Friday... Upper level ridging will gradually build into the region from the west through the week bringing dry conditions and warm to hot temperatures. High temperatures gradually increase from the 80s on Monday, towards the lower 90s for Tuesday. Upper 80s to middle 90s are forecast for Wednesday, with 90s to lower 100s for Thursday and Friday. Probabilities for high temperatures exceeding 100 degrees range from 40-60% along the river valleys of central and eastern areas. STP && .AVIATION... A disturbance dropping through the region will bring isolated (west) to scattered (central & east) showers & thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, moving NW to SE. Local/brief MVFR is possible in the shower and thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, conditions will improve towards VFR everywhere later this evening and overnight. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances return for Saturday afternoon and evening. POTENTIAL TS TIMES AND PROBABILITY OF TS TODAY: BIL: 21-03Z (20%) LVM: 22-03Z (10%) MLS: 21-05Z (35%) SHR: 23-03Z (15%) STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053/080 053/080 054/088 060/091 061/095 064/101 067/099 14/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 11/U LVM 049/080 047/079 049/087 054/089 055/094 059/099 061/097 14/T 20/U 00/U 01/U 00/U 01/U 11/U HDN 049/080 051/080 050/088 055/091 057/095 061/101 063/101 33/T 31/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 10/G MLS 053/078 055/079 055/086 058/089 061/093 064/099 066/100 41/B 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 053/079 053/078 053/085 057/088 059/093 064/099 066/100 41/B 22/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U BHK 050/076 052/078 051/084 055/085 057/089 060/095 062/096 52/T 22/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 049/079 048/076 048/085 052/088 053/092 058/099 062/099 23/T 42/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings