Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
168 FXUS65 KBYZ 011512 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 912 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .UPDATE... Shortwave moving thru central MT is producing areas of showers this morning. The leading area near Sheridan, Lame Deer and Broadus contains pockets of thunderstorms and a likelihood of locally heavy rain and small hail. Another band has impacted Billings over the past couple hours. Along the PV axis itself is another area of showers that recently passed thru Livingston and Big Timber. Overall, the activity will spread from west to east through the day. Embedded scattered thunderstorms will produce heaviest rain amounts (locally 0.25"+) over the east. Temps today will be cooler than Sunday with highs mostly 70s to around 80F. Forecast is in good shape but have adjusted pops/wx/QPF per current trends. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday Night... A few lingering showers and thunderstorms continue to move out of the far east into the Dakotas this morning. These storms will be sub-severe, capable of producing only small hail, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall with stronger storms. Slightly below to near normal high temperatures are in store today, with highs in the 70s to low 80s. The chance for precipitation across much of the region will increase later today, with shortwave energy and a weak cold front passing through. There is a Marginal Risk from the SPC for southeastern MT and northeastern WY today. The primary risk with the strongest storms will be hail and a few strong wind gusts. Current models do not suggest a very favorable environment for severe storms but one or two can`t be ruled out. The largest expected hail size today will be 1" or quarter-sized. Precipitation probabilities are 35-70%, highest west of Billings, before increasing with eastward progression of the front. Snow levels will drop to around 10,000 feet tonight and into Tuesday morning. Light and wet snow showers over the higher peaks in the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains, including the Beartooth Highway, will be capable of producing light accumulations. General troughing and an unsettled weather pattern will continue through Tuesday, with the a 25-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Expect this chance to remain confined to southern MT and Sheridan County into the afternoon when another round of energy and precipitation arrives to the region. With this second round, the chance for precip is 25-60% across the forecast area. Overnight Tuesday, the chance for precip will decrease, with a few isolated showers possible. High temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are forecast for Tuesday with overnight lows in the 50s. Matos Wednesday through Monday... Unsettled weather does not end in the mid week now, and instead looks to continue into the weekend, and while no huge, high-impact events are seen at the moment, it looks like every day has a chance for thunderstorms, but on the bright side, more mild temperatures which results in a delay of the onset of July`s usually hot appearance. Wednesday starts us off with the highest chance for a potential severe thunderstorm day (though highest in this case being relative). A trough and its associated cold front looks to swing through during the day, and combined with modest shear and instability will bring about what looks like an isolated severe storm threat. Lingering post-frontal lift will keep showers and persisting overnight and into the 4th of July. While the afternoon of the 4th could see additional storms (though not looking severe at the moment) the consensus is still that the storm and rain potential should move out of the area in the evening. Most of southeast MT during this 24 hour period has a 10-30% chance of getting at least 0.5" of rain. The exceptions maybe being far southeast MT (think past Rosebud County). So although it will be a wet 4th of July, the pros are that one, this will help to keep temperatures on the cooler side, and two, it looks to stop by sunset. While prominent upper ridging still looks to occur, confidence is still increase that it stays further west and actually keeps Montana under unsettled northwest flow, which brings a small chance for storms and showers each day through the weekend. Though again, on the bright side, this will keep temperatures near- normal for the time being. Vertz && .AVIATION... Showers and some embedded thunderstorms will impact the region today. Greatest potential for TS, local MVFR in brief heavy rain, and small hail is east of KBIL. Another disturbance from the west will bring more showers (and local MVFR) to the western mountains by late afternoon, then southern mountains/foothills tonight. The high terrain will be frequently obscured. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 079 057/079 055/079 053/074 053/084 058/088 058/085 6/T 23/T 14/T 55/T 21/U 11/U 11/U LVM 075 048/076 047/076 046/073 046/082 051/086 053/084 3/T 52/T 14/T 44/T 11/U 11/U 12/T HDN 080 054/079 052/079 051/074 049/083 053/089 053/086 6/T 23/T 25/T 56/T 21/U 11/U 11/U MLS 078 056/079 055/079 055/074 054/082 058/086 056/084 6/T 13/T 14/T 56/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 4BQ 077 056/079 053/081 054/072 053/080 056/086 056/085 6/T 23/T 14/T 56/T 22/T 11/U 11/U BHK 078 053/077 052/079 051/072 051/078 054/083 054/082 7/T 22/T 03/T 57/T 22/T 12/T 11/U SHR 075 051/076 048/079 048/071 046/080 051/086 051/083 7/T 44/T 13/T 55/T 11/U 11/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings