Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
111 FXUS65 KBYZ 020741 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 141 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Wednesday Night... Showers continue this morning over the southern mountains and foothills this morning. The chance for showers and a thunderstorm or two is 30-70%, with the best chance in southern Big Horn and Sheridan Counties. Total precip accumulations of a few tenths of an inch are possible (up to a 40% chance of 0.10" or greater). The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through the short-term forecast period as a result of general troughing and several wave disturbances moving across the region. Today, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the southern zones through the morning. A low to moderate chance (20-60%) for precip across the rest of the region increases this afternoon with some wave energy. Heights will try to increase slightly in the late afternoon to evening hours, decreasing the chance for precip for the rest of the night. Breezy W-NW winds of 20-30 mph are expected this afternoon as well, due to diurnal mixing. Wednesday, another approaching trough and associated cold front will move across the state, bringing increased chances (40-75%) for showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could be strong, especially in southeast MT and northeast WY. The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail and gusty winds. The chance for precip will decrease overnight Wednesday as the aforementioned trough moves into the Northern Plains and develops a surface low in the Dakotas. High temperatures will again be in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows in the 30s in the mountains along with snow levels around 10,000 feet will bring light and wet snow showers to the Absaroka/Beartooths. Accumulations of an inch or two are possible and those recreating in the high country should be prepared for potential wintry conditions. Matos Thursday through Tuesday... The backside of Wednesday shortwave lingers on the 4th of July as much of the day stay sunder weak, cyclonic flow and helping showers and the occasional weak thunderstorm to persist through the day. That said, still a lot of agreement from the ensembles showcasing the rain moving out of the area by the evening (with some remnants remaining in the furthest couple counties of southeast MT). With all this cloud cover and showers, temperatures will be below normal all day, with highs only in the low to mid 70s at best. Overall, expect a chilly and rain showery 4th, but with a clearing by the evening. The weekend going into early next week sees Montana split between a prominent upper ridging building over the west coast, and continued troughing and shortwave pushes dropping south through the northern plains. This will result in near normal tempeatures most days (maybe hedging slightly on the warmer side of things) with a small chance for showers and storms each day. All things considered, overall should result in some nice days. The uncertainty comes into play as to when this upper ridge moves inland. Confidence is high for it to do this eventually, which will bring about a very warm and dry period sometime next week. When this occurs is still the big question, but at the very least, looks to occur by the second half of next week, as at least 90% of ensemble members paints the ridge over Montana by this point. So enjoy the more mild temperatures while you can this week. Vertz && .AVIATION... Showers and weak thunderstorms continue this morning, mainly south of KBIL. Expect VFR conditions to prevail into the evening hours with W-NW winds gusting 15-25 knots. This evening, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will return for all terminals. Mountain obscurations will be possible with any associated showers and storms. Matos && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 079 054/076 053/076 054/085 058/086 056/085 057/092 3/T 25/T 54/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 00/U LVM 075 046/073 045/074 047/082 052/086 051/085 052/090 3/T 25/T 53/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 01/U HDN 080 051/078 051/075 049/086 054/086 052/086 053/092 4/T 25/T 56/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 00/U MLS 079 054/078 055/075 055/084 058/083 056/085 056/089 3/T 24/T 57/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 00/U 4BQ 078 054/078 054/072 052/082 056/083 055/084 056/089 2/T 15/T 57/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 00/U BHK 077 052/078 051/073 052/080 054/080 053/082 053/086 2/T 14/T 48/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 00/U SHR 076 049/076 047/072 046/082 051/084 050/084 051/089 4/T 15/T 55/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings