522
FXUS61 KBUF 050549
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
149 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will remain draped across our region today, with a few
showers and thunderstorms, becoming likely this evening as
additional energy aloft arrives. A weak cold front will cross the
region early Saturday, resulting in afternoon temperatures a degree
or two cooler, yet still moderately humid. High pressure crossing
the region later Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend
will promote fair weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar imagery late this evening showing a few areas of showers over
Lake Erie and northwest PA, drifting slowly ENE. These showers are
in association with a remnant weak MCV, which is providing a small
area of enhanced moisture convergence. These spotty showers will
drift into Western NY overnight. There is still some limited
instability, so an isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
Otherwise, a wealth of dense mid/high clouds continue to stream over
the area, with overcast skies through tonight.

Some of the precipitation from tonight may linger into Friday
morning, especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, along
with a decent amount of cloud cover. This will help keep instability
at bay, at least through the morning hours. How much the atmosphere
can recover will be important in how much convection can develop
during the afternoon with the main focus along a lake breeze or
differential heating boundary. Subsidence behind the departing MCV
and overall lack of large scale support or low level foci will keep
the chance of showers and storms quite low through most of the day.
The best chance will be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes,
with mainly dry weather favored on the lake plains.

Very warm and humid conditions will continue Friday with most high
temperatures in the mid 80s for lower elevations and lower 80s for
higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A potent shortwave trough crossing the Great Lakes region Friday
night and Saturday will support a surface low to slide northeast
across the central Great Lakes Friday night, pulling across from
west to east its cold front through the area. Ahead of the front, a
strong southeasterly flow, along with the warm temperatures from
earlier in the day will provide enough instability across the lower
Great Lakes region to make for an active start to the night with
showers and storms. This combined with the prefrontal trough,
associated DPVA, and the area aligning beneath the equatorward
entrance of the upper level jet overhead will support enough shear
for showers to support a few storms to produce a few damaging winds.
This being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the area
beneath a marginal risk for severe weather Friday night, with
damaging winds being the main concern.

In the wake of the cold frontal passage, Saturday will be breezy
featuring a brisk southwest wind with a few gusts across the lake
plains peaking near 30mph. Otherwise, outside of a few lingering
chances for some showers across the eastern Lake Ontario region, the
remainder of the region should be rain-free and cooler with highs in
the mid to upper 70s across western New York and east of Lake
Ontario and a few low 80s across the northern Finger Lakes.

High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Saturday night will make
its way east-northeast across the lower Great Lakes and into New
England Sunday and Sunday night. Overall the dry weather trend will
continue featuring comfortable humidity levels and plenty of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface ridging will slide east Monday, though the dry weather will
persist. With the exiting high pressure, southerly flow will return
and therefore advect in warm moist air into the region supporting
summer-like temperatures. Highs Monday will range in the 80s.

The next mid-level trough will begin to slide across the Great Lakes
Monday night through the rest of the week. This will reinstall the
chances for showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure
then looks to return late in the week. This being said, timing and
tracking of the next system remains in question and things may
change.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS a few spotty showers continue through the morning
hours as a frontal boundary that is stalled near the state line
shifts northward. Much of the spotty showers will be over eastern
zones, and will place a VCSH in the TAFs for KROC and KART.

Primarily VFR flight conditions and light winds through the morning.
Additional lift from a convective shortwave will depart the region
this early morning, with an area of subsidence behind this shortwave
providing for a brief period of relatively dry weather.

Later today as marginal instability builds, and a warm front remains
draped over our region a few showers and thunderstorms will become
possible, with coverage area increasing this evening as yet another
convective shortwave passes through the region. Additional showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm will remain through the overnight, with a
cold front entering WNY late. While any storm could bring brief
reductions in a downpour, there is a decent flow aloft that could
translate to the surface in any stronger storm...with localized
stronger wind gusts.

In this moisture rich boundary layer patches of fog will remain
possible tonight, especially for the Southern Tier and east of Lake
Ontario.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light tonight through Friday, generally 10 knots
or less with little wave action. A cold front will move across the
area Friday night, producing a few scattered thunderstorms with
locally higher winds and waves. Southwest winds will increase
Saturday behind the cold front, with winds and waves possibly
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria, especially on Lake Erie.

High pressure will build into the region Sunday, reducing the
southwest flow on the lower Great Lakes. The surface high will move
east Monday with a southerly flow favored. The pressure gradient
will be light enough on both Sunday and Monday to allow for some
local lake breezes to form.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA