655
FXUS61 KBUF 062334
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
734 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
Monday with locally heavy rainfall possible. Mostly dry and more
comfortable weather for Tuesday through Wednesday before becoming
unsettled again in the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very warm and muggy with mercury readings in the 80s to low 90s in
spots this evening. Heat advisories will be allowed to expire
at 8 PM. Otherwise...dry weather will continue into tonight.

There is a `low` end chance of a isolated shower or thunderstorm
overnight into early Monday morning. Another mild night expected
with temps only falling back into the 60s to low/mid 70s.

Sfc low pressure will track northeast across southern Ontario and
into southern Quebec through the day Monday. Its trailing cold front
will track toward and cross the forecast area during the late
morning and through the afternoon. The pre-frontal trough associated
with the system looks like it will weaken and get taken over by the
cold front early in the day, just west of the forecast area. This is
what the higher resolution guidance is trending with and the reason
why they are also trending drier for the first half of the morning
on Monday. The front will track through the area in pieces with the
sfc portion moving into far WNY by the mid to late morning time and
track through the eastern portions of the forecast area through the
late afternoon. The rest of the front will lag behind by a few
hours.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front as the
warm and moist airmass remains in place, and as any remnant form of
the pre-frontal trough moves into the area and interacts with lake
breeze boundaries. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity
should remain just ahead of or along the cold front as it crosses
the area. With high PWat values of around 2.00", weak flow aloft and
near parallel flow with the front, heavy rain is expected within
some of the showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
training of thunderstorms. This will increase the potential for
areas of localized flooding in some areas, with the greatest
potential expected for areas of the western Southern Tier and the
western/northern Finger Lakes. As a result of the heavy rain
potential, there is a `Marginal Risk` for excessive rainfall on
Monday for the entire area, but the best potential is expected for
areas mentioned above. There is also a `Marginal Risk` for severe
thunderstorms on Monday across the entire area. While CAPE values
look favorable for thunderstorms (1,000+ J/kg), shear looks
generally weak, but a few storms may produce some gusty winds. DCAPE
values of around 500-750 J/kg would support this potential for some
gusty winds that will be possible. Temperatures on Monday will be a
little cooler than today with highs in the mid 80s for far western
NY and the North Country, with areas of the western and northern
Finger Lakes remaining a bit warmer in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
General broad troughing will set up across the Great Lakes Monday
night and last through much of the week. Heading into Monday night,
a cold front will be in the midst of crossing the eastern portions
of the forecast area with a weak shortwave trough crossing overhead
of the lower Great Lakes nudging it along. As such, this will result
in the last few convective showers to exit the area early in the
evening, before cooler and drier air arrives late in the night.

While the general troughing pattern remains overhead Tuesday and
Tuesday night, zonal flow with in the base of the broad trough will
support a bubble of surface high pressure to ridge into the region
from the Ontario Province. With high pressure overhead, mainly dry
weather will persist, though a few spotty showers will be possible
along the far east/southeastern portions along the periphery of the
surface high. Meanwhile, temperatures will be more seasonable
Tuesday with highs int he upper 70s to low 80s.

The next more defined shortwave trough will travel through the base
of the longwave trough Wednesday and Wednesday night, sliding across
central Great Lakes. While high pressure will most likely dominate
across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday, a surface low passing east
along a stationary front across the Ohio Valley will introduce a
slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon across the western Southern Tier before spreading
northward across the remainder of the area Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The later half of the week, will feature a longwave trough axis
overhead of the central Great Lakes to traverse east into New
England by this weekend. Overall this will continue to support the
chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday. Then
as the next trough enters the northern Great Lakes Saturday, the
ridge axis of a skinny ridge will slide east across the lower Great
Lakes this weekend. Guidance continues to struggle with the timing
of these features for the weekend and therefore the current forecast
resembles the National Blend, keeping a chance for rain showers and
afternoon thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

Otherwise with the troughing pattern overhead, temperatures will be
near to slightly above average early to mid July.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winds will be less than 10 knots with VFR across all terminals
tonight.

Monday, mainly VFR to start the day, but flight conditions will
deteriorate through the day. First with showers and thunderstorms
ahead of and along a cold front that will cause heavy rain at times.
The best chance for heavy rain is expected mainly for the inland
areas south of Lake Ontario, but at least a heavy downpour for any
location in the forecast area is possible. Flight cats in heavier
downpours down to MVFR expected and even IFR possible at times,
mostly for VSBY, but lower CIGs also possible. CIGs will then lower
to lower end MVFR and some IFR by the late afternoon as the cold
front crosses the area in pieces.

Outlook...

Monday night...Mainly MVFR to IFR with decreasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
restrictions possible.

Friday...early restrictions should improve to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate chop (waves 1 to 2 feet) will be found on area
lakes this evening. Light southerly flow will continue overnight
with minimal wave action on both lakes.

Winds will `likely` remain below SCA levels Monday but more
widespread chances for tstorms will be found across the waters ahead
of a cold front. Behind the front Monday night, winds will become
northwesterly into early Tuesday, though sub-SCA conditions are
expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>006-011-
     013-014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         SLZ022.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/PP
NEAR TERM...AR/SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR/SW
MARINE...AR