


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
655 FXUS61 KBUF 062334 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 734 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday with locally heavy rainfall possible. Mostly dry and more comfortable weather for Tuesday through Wednesday before becoming unsettled again in the latter half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Very warm and muggy with mercury readings in the 80s to low 90s in spots this evening. Heat advisories will be allowed to expire at 8 PM. Otherwise...dry weather will continue into tonight. There is a `low` end chance of a isolated shower or thunderstorm overnight into early Monday morning. Another mild night expected with temps only falling back into the 60s to low/mid 70s. Sfc low pressure will track northeast across southern Ontario and into southern Quebec through the day Monday. Its trailing cold front will track toward and cross the forecast area during the late morning and through the afternoon. The pre-frontal trough associated with the system looks like it will weaken and get taken over by the cold front early in the day, just west of the forecast area. This is what the higher resolution guidance is trending with and the reason why they are also trending drier for the first half of the morning on Monday. The front will track through the area in pieces with the sfc portion moving into far WNY by the mid to late morning time and track through the eastern portions of the forecast area through the late afternoon. The rest of the front will lag behind by a few hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front as the warm and moist airmass remains in place, and as any remnant form of the pre-frontal trough moves into the area and interacts with lake breeze boundaries. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should remain just ahead of or along the cold front as it crosses the area. With high PWat values of around 2.00", weak flow aloft and near parallel flow with the front, heavy rain is expected within some of the showers and thunderstorms with the potential for training of thunderstorms. This will increase the potential for areas of localized flooding in some areas, with the greatest potential expected for areas of the western Southern Tier and the western/northern Finger Lakes. As a result of the heavy rain potential, there is a `Marginal Risk` for excessive rainfall on Monday for the entire area, but the best potential is expected for areas mentioned above. There is also a `Marginal Risk` for severe thunderstorms on Monday across the entire area. While CAPE values look favorable for thunderstorms (1,000+ J/kg), shear looks generally weak, but a few storms may produce some gusty winds. DCAPE values of around 500-750 J/kg would support this potential for some gusty winds that will be possible. Temperatures on Monday will be a little cooler than today with highs in the mid 80s for far western NY and the North Country, with areas of the western and northern Finger Lakes remaining a bit warmer in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... General broad troughing will set up across the Great Lakes Monday night and last through much of the week. Heading into Monday night, a cold front will be in the midst of crossing the eastern portions of the forecast area with a weak shortwave trough crossing overhead of the lower Great Lakes nudging it along. As such, this will result in the last few convective showers to exit the area early in the evening, before cooler and drier air arrives late in the night. While the general troughing pattern remains overhead Tuesday and Tuesday night, zonal flow with in the base of the broad trough will support a bubble of surface high pressure to ridge into the region from the Ontario Province. With high pressure overhead, mainly dry weather will persist, though a few spotty showers will be possible along the far east/southeastern portions along the periphery of the surface high. Meanwhile, temperatures will be more seasonable Tuesday with highs int he upper 70s to low 80s. The next more defined shortwave trough will travel through the base of the longwave trough Wednesday and Wednesday night, sliding across central Great Lakes. While high pressure will most likely dominate across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday, a surface low passing east along a stationary front across the Ohio Valley will introduce a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across the western Southern Tier before spreading northward across the remainder of the area Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The later half of the week, will feature a longwave trough axis overhead of the central Great Lakes to traverse east into New England by this weekend. Overall this will continue to support the chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday. Then as the next trough enters the northern Great Lakes Saturday, the ridge axis of a skinny ridge will slide east across the lower Great Lakes this weekend. Guidance continues to struggle with the timing of these features for the weekend and therefore the current forecast resembles the National Blend, keeping a chance for rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise with the troughing pattern overhead, temperatures will be near to slightly above average early to mid July. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Winds will be less than 10 knots with VFR across all terminals tonight. Monday, mainly VFR to start the day, but flight conditions will deteriorate through the day. First with showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along a cold front that will cause heavy rain at times. The best chance for heavy rain is expected mainly for the inland areas south of Lake Ontario, but at least a heavy downpour for any location in the forecast area is possible. Flight cats in heavier downpours down to MVFR expected and even IFR possible at times, mostly for VSBY, but lower CIGs also possible. CIGs will then lower to lower end MVFR and some IFR by the late afternoon as the cold front crosses the area in pieces. Outlook... Monday night...Mainly MVFR to IFR with decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. Friday...early restrictions should improve to VFR. && .MARINE... Light to moderate chop (waves 1 to 2 feet) will be found on area lakes this evening. Light southerly flow will continue overnight with minimal wave action on both lakes. Winds will `likely` remain below SCA levels Monday but more widespread chances for tstorms will be found across the waters ahead of a cold front. Behind the front Monday night, winds will become northwesterly into early Tuesday, though sub-SCA conditions are expected through the rest of the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>006-011- 013-014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SLZ022. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/PP NEAR TERM...AR/SW SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...AR/SW MARINE...AR