819
FXUS61 KBUF 270754
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
354 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move northeast across the region today, followed
by a cold front moving east across the area Saturday. These features
will produce a few rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms,
with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible. High pressure
will then build into the area and bring dry and warm weather Sunday
before chances for showers and thunderstorms return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Radar imagery showing just a few spotty showers across the region
early this morning as isentropic upglide begins to increase with the
northward advance of a warm front. The warm front will accelerate
northeastward today in response to the approach of an upstream
trough and associated flow adjustments over the eastern Great Lakes.
The warm front will continue to produce a few showers as it moves
northeast across the area today.

Western NY will break into the warm sector by early this afternoon,
with surface dewpoints surging into the 70s and contributing to weak
to moderate diurnal instability. Expect a broken band of showers and
thunderstorms to develop just east of Lake Erie early this afternoon
along a terrain induced convergence zone, with this convection then
moving east/northeast across portions of the Southern Tier to near
Rochester through the afternoon hours. High PWAT values and the
potential for training suggest some risk of heavy rainfall and
localized flooding along the corridor from the higher terrain of the
western Southern Tier to near Rochester, although there is
considerable spread and uncertainty in high-res guidance as to the
intensity of convection in this area, and even if convection will
initiate at all.

Farther northeast, expect an area of showers and isolated thunder to
move into the North Country this afternoon. A synoptic scale dry
slot and expanding stable lake shadow should allow the Buffalo and
Niagara Falls areas to dry out later this afternoon.

Tonight, most of the diurnal convection will taper off and end this
evening, with a mid level dry slot briefly moving over the eastern
Great Lakes. Overnight, a convectively augmented shortwave and pre-
frontal trough will move into the eastern Great Lakes, supporting
another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms after midnight.
These storms may be strong to severe upstream across eastern lower
Michigan and southwest Ontario this evening. They will be in the
process of weakening by the time they reach Western NY with the loss
of diurnal instability, but may still support some brief heavy
downpours and gusty winds.

Saturday, the mid level trough and pre-frontal surface trough will
move east across the area, with a continuation of showers and
scattered thunderstorms. The forcing will begin to encounter
increasing diurnal instability by the time it reaches Central NY,
where a few storms may contain gusty winds and heavy rainfall from
midday into the afternoon. The rain and thunder chances will end
from west to east later in the day with the passage of the pre-
frontal trough, with increasing sunshine later in the day from west
to east. The actual cold front will come through mainly dry late
afternoon and evening, as is often the case in the warm season here.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering showers from Saturday afternoon will push out of the
eastern Lake Ontario region within the first few hours of the
evening on Saturday. This will occur as a sfc high and ridge build
into the region from the west.

Dry and pleasant weather is expected for Sunday as the sfc high
centers over WNY by the afternoon, resulting in mostly sunny skies
and light winds. Temperatures in WNY will warm to the low to mid
80s, with cooler temperatures expected for areas east of Lake
Ontario in the low to upper 70s.

Sunday night will remain dry with the sfc high sliding to the east,
which will also result in increasing warm air advection over the
region. Increasing Td values and low temperatures overnight only
down to around the mid 60s to near 70 south of Lake Ontario will
start to give a more humid feel to the air by Monday morning. East
of Lake Ontario, where warm air advection is later to start,
temperates overnight should remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Clouds will increase later in the night as a cold front and trough
track into the Central Great Lakes by Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching cold front and trough will increase the
potential for showers late Monday, which will continue through
Tuesday evening for at least some portions of the area. Drier
weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday, though some
guidance is suggesting the potential for afternoon showers with the
daytime heating. A passing trough axis over the region on Wednesday
night will also increase the potential for some showers overnight
into Thursday morning.

Temperatures will remain near to above normal for the period, with
the warmest temperatures expected on Monday ahead of the
approaching cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal boundary which has been stalled south of the region for
the past few days will move back northward this morning as a warm
front. Most areas will stay dry through this morning with just a few
spotty showers. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue from the Genesee
Valley into the Finger Lakes, with IFR across higher terrain.

Modest diurnal instability and persistent low level convergence
along the southeastern edge of the Lake Erie lake breeze will allow
a band of showers and thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon
from the western Southern Tier to just east of KBUF, with this line
of convection then moving east into the Genesee Valley and western
Finger Lakes through the rest of the afternoon, possibly reaching
the eastern Lake Ontario region late today. Areas of MVFR will
persist near the showers, with local/brief IFR in thunderstorms.

The loss of daytime heating will allow most of the showers and
thunderstorms to end by early to mid evening, leaving mainly VFR
behind. A mid level shortwave and associated pre-frontal trough will
then move across the eastern Great Lakes late tonight through
Saturday morning, with another round of showers and scattered
thunderstorms expected with local/brief restrictions.

Outlook...

Saturday...Showers and scattered thunderstorms with local/brief
restrictions gradually ending from west to east, followed by VFR.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, especially
in the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will move northward across the eastern Great Lakes
today. East winds will persist on Lake Ontario today with a moderate
chop, then become south this evening following the passage of the
warm front. South winds will increase tonight, especially at the
east end of Lake Ontario where Small Craft Advisory conditions will
develop. A cold front will then move east across the eastern Great
Lakes later Saturday, with winds becoming southwest on both lakes.
Expect very choppy conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
Saturday, but winds and waves are expected to remain just below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
         Saturday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...HSK/SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock