114
FXUS61 KBUF 040808
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
408 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop to near the New York and Pennsylvania
State line today, with morning showers fading south and southeast of
Lake Ontario this morning, though an afternoon spot shower may form
near the state line. Otherwise today and tonight will feature dry,
but still very warm and humid conditions. Another system will bring
more showers and thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As a weak cold front slowly sags southward across our region this
morning, regional radars display clusters of showers east and
southeast of Lake Ontario, with inland isolated activity. MLCAPE
values are weak, around 250 J/KG towards the Finger Lakes, and the
shower activity just past sunrise should become more concentrated
towards this region...and along the cold front passes through.

By mid-morning with the beginning of daytime mixing we should see a
decrease in the showers. With this weak cold front, and axis of
deeper moisture nearing the state line later in the morning another
spot shower or two remains possible, but largely our region will
remain dry and still humid.

There is little cool air behind this front, though we will be able
to shave a degree or two off from the highs from yesterday. Highs
this afternoon will range through the 80s, coolest on the Tug Hill
and across the hills of SW NYS, while the Genesee Valley and Finger
Lakes region will likely have upper 80s for highs.

Weak surface high pressure will settle across our region tonight,
with fair, but muggy weather. The lack of a decent pressure gradient
will result in light winds for this evening...slowing firework smoke
dissipation.

The lack of forcing with the weak surface high nearby will keep much
of the region dry tonight. However there is still plenty of moisture
within the boundary layer, and there are some hints that this
mornings MCS over KS/MO may eject a subtle shortwave over our region
tonight. Energy from this feature, along with weak instability of
100 to 200 J/KG could lend to a late spot shower or two...especially
near southern zones.

It will remain muggy and warm tonight with lows in the mid to upper
60s common. Some patches of fog are possible with dewpoints not much
lower than the air temperature.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Southeasterly flow combined with consensus 850mb temps around +18C
will result in warm weather Friday, with highs approaching 90F along
the Lake Erie shoreline, Buffalo area, and the Genesee Valley.
Meanwhile a potent shortwave will dig across the central Great
Lakes, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and night. This will be supported by the passage of a
couple frontal boundaries, DPVA, and the region being in the right
entrance region of a jet streak. A few strong thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out, but in general wind profiles will not be supportive of
widespread severe weather.

Following the passage of a cold front, Saturday will be breezy,
especially across the lake plains where southwest winds will gust
over 30 mph. Lingering chances of showers east of Lake Ontario on
Saturday, but the rest of the area should be rain-free and cooler
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure across the Ohio Valley Saturday night will ridge into
the region on Sunday. This will bring fair and generally pleasant
weather to the region with comfortable humidity levels and lots of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface ridging gives fairly high confidence that the area will see
dry weather Sunday night and Monday. Southerly return flow will also
bring a return to warmer weather for Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms area possible Tuesday and
Wednesday period as a mid level trough enters the region and a wave
of low pressure tracks to our north bringing a cold front through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS mainly VFR flight conditions are found. There are a
few showers near KART, remaining here for the next few hours.
Ceilings may lower to MVFR for KART. Across Lake Erie satellite
imagery displays a deck of low stratus, that mesoscale modeling
expands northeastward within a light southwest wind and moisture
rich lower boundary layer. This would bring a scattered to broken
deck of low ceilings to KBUF, in a 10Z to 13Z window. Otherwise,
within this humid airmass some patches of fog or low ceilings may
develop...especially across the Southern Tier (KJHW).

A weak cold front will drop across the region this morning from
north to south, stalling near the State line this afternoon and
overnight...before fading. Any showers this afternoon and overnight
along the front will likely stay just south of KJHW - KELZ, with VFR
flight conditions across the TAF sites through tonight.

Winds will be weak tonight with high pressure extending across the
region.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.
Friday night...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front passing today, to be followed by weak surface high
pressure tonight will lend to not much of a pressure gradient,
resulting in light winds and waves through tonight.

Winds will then shift out of the east Friday, becoming southwesterly
again by Saturday when the another round of SCAs appears
possible.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Apffel/Fries
LONG TERM...Apffel/TMA
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas