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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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706 FXUS61 KBUF 200635 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 235 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue fine summer weather with low humidity across our region today, with passing cirrus across the southern zones, and bright sunshine to the north. A moisture starved cold front will drop southward into our zones tonight and Sunday, bringing a band of clouds. The next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday, along with an increase in humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure across our region to start the day is producing light and variable winds, clear skies with just some thin cirrus passing across southern zones. Warm air advection from southwesterly flow aloft today, along with a warmer start, will add several degrees onto our highs this afternoon versus Friday. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, or close to normal. Plenty of sunshine today, with just slight increase in cloud cover across Allegany County as deeper Atlantic moisture passes through central PA to ENY. A cold front will drop southward from Canada tonight. This front is rather moisture starved, but clouds will gather within a ribbon of deeper 850-700 hPa moisture, with these clouds dropping across Lake Ontario and points eastward later tonight. A spotty shower is possible along the front across the North Country, but many areas will remain dry. Lows tonight will drop back into the mid 50s across interior SW NYS where skies will remain mainly clear, while closer to the Lakes and east of Lake Ontario lows will be around 60 to the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A weak shortwave trough will traverse through the midlevel longwave over northern Quebec Sunday, supporting a backdoor cold front to slide southeast across the forecast region Sunday afternoon. Along this front, clouds will gather within a ribbon of deeper 850-700 hPa moisture, however despite this a few spotty showers can`t be ruled out, especially across the Niagara Frontier. This front will then stall across New York State Monday. While the area will remain mostly dry, a few afternoon showers will be possible with the frontal boundary overhead. The better activity Monday lies across the southeastern portions of the area from Allegany County to the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with the base of a longwave trough over our region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak broad, positively tilted trough will drop south from central Canada into the Great Lakes region this week. This trough will allow a gradual northward advection of GOMEX based moisture into the Northeast. Translating this pattern for the weather across the lower Great Lakes, the increasingly unstable environment will allow for a return to a much more unsettled pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. In general, chances will be highest across the interior in the afternoon hours each day when diurnal heating is at its strongest, while diminishing overnight and into the morning hours. PWATs near or exceeding 1.7" within this increasingly humid airmass will allow for periods of heavy rain, though there remains typical long range model discrepancies on how exactly the trough across the East will evolve which limits certainty in timing, placement and amounts. Temperatures Tuesday will top out in the low to mid 80s in most spots, while reaching the upper 70s and low 80s Wednesday and Thursday though with increased humidity. Overnight lows with range in the 60s each night. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For the 06Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found and these conditions will likely continue through the TAF cycle. Cirrus spilling across the Southern Tier this early morning along with a slightly drier boundary layer will limit fog potential. A weak cold front will drop southward tonight, bringing an increase in clouds for KART, but remaining within the VFR flight range. Outlook... Sunday and Monday...VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain across the eastern Great Lakes today with light winds and waves. A weak cold front will fade as it drops southward across the eastern Great Lakes early Sunday. This will result in a weak pressure gradient only supporting gentle to occasionally moderate breezes and waves two feet or less on Lake Ontario to close the weekend. This weak pressure gradient will yield light winds and again minimal waves for Monday, to start the new work week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Thomas SHORT TERM...EAJ/Thomas LONG TERM...EAJ/PP AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas