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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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285 FXUS61 KBUF 151532 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1132 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An area of thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon and evening, bringing a risk of gusty winds and heavy downpours. An unsettled pattern will continue through mid-week, bringing periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will sweep across the area midweek with high pressure building in its wake bringing mainly dry weather along with cooler and much less humid conditions for the second half of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... IR satellite imagery shows an MCV across Lake Huron and adjacent portions of Southern Ontario late this morning, with this expected to track across Lake Ontario this afternoon and evening. MCVs are commonly linked to severe weather in our area since they increase wind shear to the south of its track. In this case, timing is diurnally favorable. Most mesoscale guidance and in particular the HRRR show a potent area of convection moving from west to east across the area this afternoon and evening. Feel the HRRR may be a bit slow compared to current radar trends but it shows a realistic depiction of what is likely to happen. The timing for the greatest risk for severe weather in the Niagara Frontier (Buffalo area) 2 - 5 p.m., Genesee Valley (Rochester area ) 3 - 7 p.m., and Eastern Lake Ontario (Watertown area) 4 - 8 p.m. There is not as much wind shear as last week (July 10th) when there were multiple tornados in the forecast area, but there is ample shear to support damaging winds in-line winds. However, this should not be downplayed, since damaging winds typically impact a larger area and can still cause significant damage. The risk for tornados is non-zero, but for most areas in-line wind gusts will be the main concern. SPC is on board as well with much of western and northcentral NY in Slight Risk. With PWATs up around 1.75 inches, any storms could produce torrential downpours, although the localized flash flooding risk is a lesser risk as this activity will be moving fairly quickly. Otherwise, the very warm and humid conditions will continue today with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the growing confidence for convection today, believe apparent temperatures will remain below Heat Advisory criteria across the Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes with the system impacting the area during the afternoon hours. Convective wave moves east of the area tonight. Can`t rule out a few scattered showers or an isolated storm overnight, however expect bulk of the area to remain dry. The next convective wave progged to bring the next round of showers and storms on Tuesday will approach western NY as it moves east over western Lake Erie/northern OH late tonight. It will be another warm and very stick night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tuesday, a longwave trough will remain well upstream of the area over northwest Ontario. A weak low level trough axis will remain from the Ohio Valley to New England, with its position modulated by numerous rounds of convection and associated composite outflow. Another convectively generated vorticity maxima is forecast to move east along this boundary Tuesday, supporting another round of showers and thunderstorms crossing the area from west to east. Latest model guidance suggests a relatively early arrival of this feature, moving into Western NY in the morning, then Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region by early afternoon. The arrival of forcing, clouds, and showers early in the diurnal cycle will likely limit potential instability and brings a great deal of uncertainty to the severe weather potential. Deep layer shear is not particularly strong, up to 30 knots, but the MCV will likely bring a mesoscale region of enhanced low/mid level shear, convergence, and ascent as it crosses the region. If stronger storms develop in the presence of this more favorable MCV environment, localized strong winds would be the primary hazard. In the wake of the MCV, a few more showers and thunderstorms may develop along lake breeze driven convergence zones in the afternoon and evening, mainly from the Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and Central NY. Increasing southwest flow off Lake Erie will likely produce a stable lake shadow northeast of the lake with mainly dry weather following the morning/midday convection. It will be very warm and humid again Tuesday, with highs in the low 80s for Western NY and mid to upper 80s from the Genesee Valley into Central NY. There may be a brief window of mid 90s heat index from the Genesee Valley into Central NY, but clouds and convection may keep temperatures a few degrees lower and prevent Heat Advisory criteria from being reached. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday night through Wednesday night the longwave trough will gradually dig through the Great Lakes, ending up in Quebec by Thursday morning. One or more convectively augmented shortwaves may cross NY/PA Tuesday night through Wednesday, supporting ongoing chances of a few showers and thunderstorms at times. The cold front will cross the region later Wednesday afternoon, with the chance of showers and thunderstorms then ending from northwest to southeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night. Drier and less humid air will arrive later Wednesday night in the wake of the cold front. A period of much drier, less humid, and somewhat cooler weather will arrive Thursday and likely last through the long term period (more on which follows below). High pressure will build in Thursday and Thursday night...with an attendant pool of cooler air leading to highs in the 70s Thursday...and lows ranging through the 50s Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... It`s looking like this will be a stretch of spectacular weather across the region, with a broad ridge of high pressure building across the region. A weak cold front will drop southward across the region Sunday, but its passage should largely be rain-free with possibly an isolated shower. Otherwise, there`s good model agreement providing high confidence in rain-free weather. Temperatures will be near normal with daytime highs averaging in the mid 70s to lower 80s and nighttime lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Area of mainly MVFR/IFR CIGS will continue through mid to late morning across the far western NY terminals (KBUF/KIAG/KJHW) as enhanced low level moisture moves in across these areas in advance of approaching wave. These CIGS may last for several hours before mixing out late this morning. Otherwise, a convectively augmented shortwave will push across the region this afternoon and evening with growing confidence for showers and thunderstorms. Expect brief periods of MVFR/IFR in heavier showers and storms, with mainly marginal MVFR to low VFR CIGS otherwise. Aforementioned wave will move east of the area late in the day/early evening with a return to predominantly VFR conditions tonight. Outlook... Tuesday and Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...VFR. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will increase in response to the passage of an MCV, resulting in a brief period of small craft conditions on Lake Erie this afternoon and evening. Southwest flow will increase again late tonight through Tuesday, producing more notable chop on both lakes, with possibly a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie Tuesday. There will be periodic chances for thunderstorms across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Wednesday, with the potential for locally higher winds and waves in and near any storms. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/JM SHORT TERM...Hitchcock/JJR LONG TERM...Apffel AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM