203
FXUS61 KBUF 171400
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1000 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a few thunderstorms today will come to an end from west
to east this afternoon as a cold front slides across the region.
Much drier air behind this front will lower the humidity to
comfortable levels, with air temperatures Thursday and Friday a few
degrees below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A cold front will drop southeastward across the area today. As
instability increases this afternoon, the showers will become
more numerous. Greatest possibilities for thunder will be the
Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario where greater daytime
insolation and developing CAPE (MUCAPE of 500 J/KG) will be
realized.

Later this afternoon and this evening behind the cold front winds
will veer to west and then northwesterly. This wind flow will bring
the start of a much drier atmosphere, with humidity beginning to
lower through the night.

Fair weather tonight with a light northerly flow, though some valley
fog may fill the SOuthern Tier. It will also be a comfortable night
for sleeping, with lows in the low to mid 50s across inland higher
terrain, to around 60F/low 60s closer to the warm Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday through Thursday night the mid level longwave trough will
move east across Ontario and Quebec, with the southern end of the
trough axis crossing NY/PA. DPVA ahead of the trough will provide
some large scale ascent Thursday, but surface high pressure and a
dry airmass will generally only support diurnal cumulus inland
from the lakes with dry weather prevailing. The one exception may be
across the North Country where a few spotty light showers are
possible. Thursday will be cooler and notably less humid, with highs
ranging from the mid 70s for lower elevations and around 70 for
higher terrain. Lows Thursday night will drop back into the 50s,
with some upper 40s possible across the cooler Southern Tier
valleys.

Sprawling surface high pressure will then settle over the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday through Friday night with dry weather
and low humidity. Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to near 80
for lower elevations and mid 70s for higher terrain. Lows Friday
night will drop back into the 50s in most locations, with some upper
40s possible in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and Lewis County.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fantastic stretch of dry weather will continue next weekend as a
large area of high pressure remains in control from the Great Lakes
into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Expect mainly dry weather
Saturday through Monday. The one feature to watch will be Sunday,
when the mid level trough amplifies across Quebec and pushes a weak
backdoor cold front south across the area. The front will be
moisture starved and weakly forced, but may support a low chance for
a few spotty showers.

Uncertainty begins to increase by next Tuesday. A broad/weak trough
over the Plains will move slowly east to the Mississippi Valley,
with a diffuse area of moisture and general low pressure drifting
northeast towards the Ohio Valley. Model guidance has shown some run
to run variability on how far north this moisture will reach by
Tuesday. Overall, the better rain chances will likely stay well
south of our region, although given the uncertainty, maintained low
rain chances for now.

Temperatures will quickly warm as the airmass modifies, with highs
slightly above average again by the weekend. This will translate
into highs in the low to mid 80s for lower elevations and around 80
for higher terrain Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS mainly VFR/MVFR flight conditions, with a few
isolated showers across the region. There are a few patches of
stratus clouds with bases at MVFR flight range. These cloud
bases should lift through the morning with increase daytime
mixing.

A cold front will push across the region today, with again showers
and a few thunderstorms forming. Any thunderstorm should just be
garden variety this afternoon, but could briefly lower flight
conditions to MVFR. This activity will end from west to east
through the afternoon hours behind the cold front. Much drier
air returning to the region tonight will return VFR flight
conditions, with a light northern wind. Some river valley for is
likely tonight across the Southern Tier, possibly expanding
towards KJHW.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the Lower Lakes today from west to east,
with showers and a few thunderstorms upon it. Winds will veer to
northwesterly tonight, with 10 knots or so on Lake Erie, and perhaps
reaching 15 or so knots on Lake Ontario. This will yield waves that
may eclipse small craft thresholds on the south and southeastern
waters of Lake Ontario, for which a small craft advisory may be
needed for tonight.

HIgh pressure will then build across the Lakes later tonight through
the end of the work week with a light wind flow.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Thomas
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas