211
FXUS61 KBUF 172309
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
709 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of a Southern Tier shower this evening...dry...more
comfortable weather can now be expected for the foreseeable future.
Sprawling high pressure over the Upper Mississippi valley early
tonight will gradually settle across all of the Great Lakes and Ohio
valley through the weekend and can be thanked for the change to fair
pleasant conditions. Our next real chance for widespread
precipitation will not come until the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid-level trough will move across our region tonight, and this
will usher in a cooler and drier air mass. Can`t rule out a stray
shower with this trough this evening before the drier air mass wins
out later tonight. The light winds and partial clearing will allow
for fairly good radiational cooling, and possibly some river valley
fog in the Southern Tier. Lows will mainly be in the mid to upper
50s.

On Thursday...surface high pressure will be centered near Iowa, with
the mid level trough axis still across our region. The air mass
should be too dry to support much precipitation, but isolated
showers can`t completely be ruled out along with some strato-cumulus
cloud cover. It will be notably cooler and more comfortable with
highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining lingering showers will wrap up Thursday evening,then
gradual clearing skies will likely take place. This will support
good radiational cooling overnight, with the cooler spots found in
the upper 40s and a range of 50s elsewhere.

A spectacular finish to the work week is on tap for Friday and dry
with low humidity levels. Highs on Friday will generally be found in
the 70s.

As we progress into the weekend a gradual day to day warming trend
is advertised to take place. Other than that, high pressure anchored
over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will likely keep much of the
region dry. That said...there is a weakening front approaching from
the north late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This feature
may introduce a shower or isolated thunderstorm across the St.
Lawrence Valley and North Country by Saturday night. Have kept very
low end chance PoPs for now for the above locales. Otherwise...highs
on Saturday will be found in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid-level low pressure centered over Quebec, Canada will amplify
Sunday as a shortwave trough rounds its base. At the surface, high
pressure spread across the area Saturday will remain mostly in place
Sunday, however a backdoor cold front will slide southeast across
New York state. This front looks to be moisture starved, and
therefore a low chance for a few spotty showers. In the wake of this
front, surface high pressure will re-establish itself across the
lower Great Lakes for the start of the week, continuing dry weather
Monday and Monday night.

Uncertainty remains for Tuesday and Wednesday with a broad, weak
trough over the Plains moving slowly east into the Mississippi
Valley. This will support a diffuse area of moisture and general low
pressure drifting northeast across the Ohio Valley. Depending on the
northward extent of the moisture Tuesday, chances for showers will
be possible, and remain likely south of the forecast area. As the
moisture further creeps northward Wednesday, the chances for showers
will continue.

Otherwise, temperatures will warm this weekend with highs slightly
above average for the end of the weekend and the start of next week.
Highs will range in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly rain-free and VFR flight conditions tonight and Thursday.
There`s a risk that river valley fog will bring IFR or lower
visibility at KJHW, with a non-zero risk for fog elsewhere.
There may be patchy MVFR cigs tonight and Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Upper Mississippi valley early tonight will
slowly settle across all of the Great Lakes region Thursday into the
upcoming weekend. The resulting weak sfc pressure gradient will
guarantee gentle to moderate breezes and negligible wave action
through the period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH