689
FXUS61 KBUF 071350
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
950 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Lake Erie will slowly drift east and
provide us with fair dry weather through Monday night. A slow moving
cold front will then sag across and stall over our region Tuesday
and Wednesday. Remnants from Beryl will circulate up across the
forecast area during the middle of the week with some areas likely
receiving multiple inches of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Great weather will be found throughout the region today...as high
pressure centered over Lake Erie will provide us with wall to
sunshine and temperatures that will mainly top out in the lower 80s.

Another pleasant...star filled night can be expected tonight with
temperatures settling into the upper 50s to lower 60s. As was the
case this morning...the clear skies and light winds will encourage
fog to form in the Southern Tier valleys.

High pressure wedged from New England to West Virginia will then
guarantee another sunny day to start the new work week. Temperatures
aloft will nudge upwards into the mid teens C...so that will allow
Mondays max temperatures to climb WELL into the 80s to near 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night and Tuesday our region will be near the advection
of tropical moisture from two separate source. A southerly flow
will bring Atlantic moisture northward from the Southeast. This
moisture will track into our Finger Lakes region. Meanwhile
ahead of a mid level trough, moisture from Tropical system Beryl
will be streaming by just to our west. Between these two
moisture plumes, much of our CWA will reside. This will leave
Monday night mainly dry, while on Tuesday some lake breeze
circulation showers and thunderstorms may form. Tuesday will
also feature similar temperatures, but with dewpoints now a few
degrees warmer. This will bring heat index values into the low
to mid 90s for portions of the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes
region.

Tuesday night as moisture from Beryl deepens across our region,
additional showers and perhaps thunderstorms will begin to increase
from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...Significant Rains from Beryl Possible Wednesday...

The two plumes of tropical moisture mentioned in the short term
will converge upon our region Wednesday, resulting in a deep
warm layer of over 14K feet with PWAT values 2.00 to 2.25 inches.

In the lower levels convergence ahead of a 35 knot LLJ, along with a
warm front draped over our region will combine with diffluent flow
aloft, and lift along multiple shortwaves to spread a period of rain
across our region. A mid level ridge may focus the better lift
(diffluent flow) aloft to our north and west Wednesday...resulting
in heavy rain to our west. But this heavier rain will advance into
our region. By Wednesday night the surface warm front will be
lifting towards the eastern Lake Ontario region, with a favored area
for heavy rain here overnight. At this time WPC has upgraded our
eastern two thirds of the CWA into a slight risk for excessive
rainfall through Wednesday night. There is still a lot of
uncertainty as to where the axis of heavier precipitation will be.

Wednesday and Wednesday night will also have chances for
thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values towards 1500 J/KG Wednesday
diminishing Wednesday night east of Lake Ontario.

The mid level trough will be slow to push eastward and flatten,
leaving chances for additional showers and thunderstorms Thursday
through Saturday, especially during the peak heating of the
afternoon. Heavy rain chances will be less this period with the axis
of deeper moisture now to the east, along with a weakening LLJ.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure centered over the region will support fair VFR
conditions with light winds through tonight. The only fly in the
ointment to the near ideal flying weather will be another round of
valley fog across the Southern Tier late tonight. Sites such as KJHW
and KELZ will likely experience IFR conditions in stratus and fog
after about 07z.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms
likely.
Wednesday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes through early
next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions through mid
week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds and limited
waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake breezes to form
each day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas/RSH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/HSK