311
FXUS61 KBUF 051817
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
217 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain draped across the region tonight
with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A weak cold
front will cross the region early Saturday, resulting in afternoon
temperatures a degree or two cooler, yet still moderately humid.
High pressure crossing the region later Saturday and through the
remainder of the weekend will promote fair weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak frontal boundary remains positioned across the region this
afternoon. Cloud breaks have allow for afternoon instability to
build to 1000-1500 J/kg, but little in the way of forcing for
convection. Hint of a couple of lake breeze boundaries, so still
could see some isolated convection this afternoon.

Potential for showers and thunderstorms increases across the area
this evening and tonight, which will be tied to an incoming mid
level wave from the upper Great Lakes and approaching weak cold
frontal boundary. Severe threat looks limited, but with
residual instability this evening and 0-6km bulk shear values
near 50 knots would not rule out the possibility of a gusty
thunderstorm.

A shortwave and weak surface low will track into southern Quebec on
Saturday, with an associated cold front pushing east of our area
during the day. Saturday will be breezy and not quite as warm
and humid in the wake of this cold frontal passage. Outside of
a few lingering chances for some showers across the eastern Lake
Ontario and western Finger Lakes regions, the remainder of the
region should be rain-free.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave and weak surface low will track into southern
Quebec on Saturday, with an associated cold front pushing east
of our area during the day. Saturday will be breezy cooler in
the wake of this cold frontal passage. Outside of a few
lingering chances for some showers across the eastern Lake
Ontario and western Finger Lakes regions, the remainder of the
region should be rain-free.

High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Saturday night will make
its way into New England Sunday and Sunday night. This will bring
dry weather featuring comfortable humidity levels and plenty of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure across New England will set up a southerly return flow
which will in warm and moist air into the region supporting summer-
like temperatures. Highs Monday will range in the 80s.

The next mid-level trough will begin to slide across the Great Lakes
Monday night through Wednesday. This will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday, with the greatest
chances Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low confidence in
temperatures Tuesday, with model differences in precipitation timing
and 850mb temps, but in general it`s likely to be another hot day.
After that, the trough will bring cooler weather for the rest of the
work week. High pressure will then build across the area Thursday
bringing a return to dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak warm frontal boundary remains draped across the region. As
instability builds this afternoon, a few showers and storms
will become possible, with coverage area increasing this evening
as yet another convective shortwave passes through the region.

Additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will remain through
the overnight, with a cold front entering WNY late. While any storm
could bring brief reductions in a downpour, there is a decent flow
aloft that could translate to the surface in any stronger storm,
with localized stronger wind gusts.

In this moisture rich boundary layer patches of fog will remain
possible tonight, especially for the Southern Tier and east of Lake
Ontario.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms
likely.
Wednesday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light on the lower Great Lakes through tonight
with a weak pressure gradient in place. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday, with freshening southwest winds. Sustained winds
wind could near 20 knots for a time Saturday afternoon which may
necessitate some small craft headlines, mainly on the eastern end of
Lake Erie.

High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes Sunday and into
the start of next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions
through mid week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds
and limited waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake
breezes to form each day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel/EAJ
LONG TERM...Apffel/EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...TMA