Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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992 FXUS61 KBUF 051838 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will remain draped across the region tonight with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A weak cold front will cross the region early Saturday, resulting in afternoon temperatures a degree or two cooler, yet still moderately humid. High pressure crossing the region later Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend will promote fair weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak frontal boundary remains positioned across the region this afternoon. Cloud breaks have allow for afternoon instability to build to 1000-1500 J/kg, but little in the way of forcing for convection. Hint of a couple of lake breeze boundaries, so still could see some isolated convection this afternoon. Potential for showers and thunderstorms increases across the area this evening and tonight, which will be tied to an incoming mid level wave from the upper Great Lakes and approaching weak cold frontal boundary. Severe threat looks limited, but with residual instability this evening and 0-6km bulk shear values near 50 knots would not rule out the possibility of a gusty thunderstorm. A shortwave and weak surface low will track into southern Quebec on Saturday, with an associated cold front pushing east of our area during the day. Saturday will be breezy and not quite as warm and humid in the wake of this cold frontal passage. Outside of a few lingering chances for some showers across the eastern Lake Ontario and western Finger Lakes regions, the remainder of the region should be rain-free. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... While there could be a couple leftover showers across the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley early Saturday evening attendant to the departing weak surface low/cold front...Saturday night will otherwise be dry and uneventful as high pressure and drier air over the Ohio Valley noses northeastward across our region. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The aforementioned high will then continue to ridge northeastward across New York State and into New England Sunday and Sunday night. This will support continued largely dry and fair weather...though lingering weak surface troughing could still support another isolated shower across the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley during Sunday. Otherwise Sunday`s highs on will range within a few degrees of 80 in most locations...with lows Sunday night again in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Monday and Monday night the axis of the surface ridge will slip off the New England coastline...while the next mid-level trough and associated weak frontal system slides across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. The developing southerly return flow in between these features will help to pump warmer and more humid air back into our region. As a result highs on Monday will climb back to the mid 80s to lower 90s...with lows Monday night then only falling to the mid 60s to lower 70s...all while surface dewpoints make their way back into the mid to upper 60s. Meanwhile generally dry weather will continue to prevail...though cannot rule out a few isolated showers and storms along our southeastern periphery Monday afternoon/evening in tandem with a passing shortwave. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The mid-level trough and its associated weak surface reflection will then slide across our area Tuesday and Tuesday night. The continued northward advection of warmth and moisture out ahead of this system will send PWATs back up to between 1.5 and 2.0 inches during Tuesday...and this in tandem with daytime heating and increasing large-scale ascent will support the likelihood of another round of showers and thunderstorms...with the best chances for these likely coming between Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise it should be very warm and humid again before the convection arrives on Tuesday...with highs generally ranging through the 80s and surface dewpoints running between 65 and 70. Latest model consensus supports the initial trailing cold front from this system crossing our area Tuesday night...with a weaker secondary boundary then following suit during Wednesday. Coupled with broad troughing aloft...this may allow some additional scattered showers/isolated storms to persist through Wednesday. Otherwise cooler and more comfortable air will filter back across our region following the passage of the above cold fronts...with highs Wednesday pulling back to the upper 70s/lower 80s...and lows Wednesday night dipping back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. After that...high pressure looks to build across the region Thursday...before sliding out across New England on Friday. This will result in generally dry weather to close out the work week... with continued comfortable temperatures Thursday/Thursday night giving way to warmer readings on Friday. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak warm frontal boundary remains draped across the region. As instability builds this afternoon, a few showers and storms will become possible, with coverage area increasing this evening as yet another convective shortwave passes through the region. Additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will remain through the overnight, with a cold front entering WNY late. While any storm could bring brief reductions in a downpour, there is a decent flow aloft that could translate to the surface in any stronger storm, with localized stronger wind gusts. In this moisture rich boundary layer patches of fog will remain possible tonight, especially for the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers. Sunday and Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely. Wednesday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds will remain light on the lower Great Lakes through tonight with a weak pressure gradient in place. A cold front will cross the region Saturday, with freshening southwest winds. Sustained winds wind could near 20 knots for a time Saturday afternoon which may necessitate some small craft headlines, mainly on the eastern end of Lake Erie. High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes Sunday and into the start of next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions through mid week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds and limited waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake breezes to form each day. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA NEAR TERM...Apffel/Thomas/TMA SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...Thomas/TMA MARINE...TMA