Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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153 FXUS61 KBUF 061615 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1215 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push east of the area today, ushering in slightly cooler and less humid weather for the remainder of the weekend. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible at some locations today, but then high pressure will build in and bring fair weather to the entire region tonight through Monday night. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday and Wednesday when a trough of low pressure moves across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... It will be warm and humid throughout the region today. While most areas will remain rainfree to start the weekend...there will be some boundaries that will kick off scattered showers and drenching thunderstorms. The first boundary of note will be a convergence zone that will stretch from near Grand Island and IAG Falls to near Rochester. These are fairly common in the summer in the wake of a cold front. Showers and storms have already blossomed along this boundary...and they should continue to do so through at least the first part of the afternoon. There will be plenty of instability for the convection to work with in this area with 35-40kts of bulk shear...so its not out of the question that any given storm could get strong to severe. Otherwise...these are more likely to just be heavy rainers with localized wind gusts to 40 mph. Another boundary will be parallel to Lake Erie...stretching from the Southern Tier to the Lower Genesee valley. This lake breeze boundary will slowly push east as we make our way through the midday and afternoon. While instability in this area will be greater...wind shear will be correspondingly weaker. Nonetheless...this convection will also favor heavy rainers with some gusts to 40 mph. The highest risk for such storms will be east of a line running from Chautauqua Lake to Arcade to about Avon. Otherwise...partly sunny skies will dominate the region with Td`s in the mid to upper 60s supporting mid summer weather. Tonight...high pressure centered over the Ohio valley will slowly drift east and expand across the Lower Great Lakes. After a few early evening showers/storms across the Srn Tier...the sfc high will help to promote fair dry weather. While mild...the mins tonight will be a few degrees lower than those from early this morning as they will range from the upper 50s across much of the Srn Tier to the lower 60s most elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will pass across our region Sunday, with light winds and comfortable levels of humidity. Developing lake breeze circulations through the afternoon will build a little cumulus, but shortwave ridge axis over our region and lacking deep moisture should keep the day dry. Pleasant sleeping conditions for Sunday night with lows dropping back into the upper 50s interior higher spots, to low/mid 60s closer to the Lakes and through the Finger Lakes. Monday the surface ridge will advance to the east, with a southerly return flow aloft developing through the day. Though dewpoints will begin to creep upwards, they will still remain fairly comfortable, save for the Finger Lakes/Southeast of Lake Ontario region where the axis of low level moisture will push dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s. However the advection of a warmer airmass (850 hPa temperatures in the mid to upper teens Celsius) and a fair amount of sunshine will bring afternoon highs back into the mid 80s to around 90F. Though Monday should remain dry, the increasing moisture may bring a shower or two Monday night to the Finger Lakes/Southeast of Lake Ontario. Monday night will also return back to the mugginess, with overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tuesday and Tuesday night will likely be the most active timeframe for this period as a mid level trough approaches our region, sending a plume of deeper moisture across our region that will enhance showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and overnight. The continued northward advection of warmth and moisture out ahead of this system will send PWATs back up to between 1.5 and 2.0 inches during Tuesday...and this in tandem with daytime heating and increasing large-scale ascent will support the likelihood of another round of showers and thunderstorms...with the best chances for these likely coming between Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise it should be very warm and humid again before the convection arrives on Tuesday...with highs generally ranging through the 80s and surface dewpoints running between 65 and 70. Latest model consensus supports the initial trailing cold front from this system crossing our area Tuesday night...with a weaker secondary boundary then following suit during Wednesday. Coupled with broad troughing aloft...this may allow some additional scattered showers/isolated storms to persist through Wednesday. Otherwise cooler and more comfortable air will filter back across our region following the passage of the above cold fronts...with highs Wednesday pulling back to the upper 70s/lower 80s...and lows Wednesday night dipping back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. After that...high pressure looks to build across the region Thursday...before sliding out across New England on Friday. This will result in generally dry weather to close out the work week... with continued comfortable temperatures Thursday/Thursday night giving way to warmer readings on Friday. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... While most TAF sites will experience VFR conditions today... showers and storms focused on two boundaries will produced localized MVFR conditions. These boundaries will stretch from KIAG to KROC and from near KJHW to KIUA. Any diurnally assisted showers and thunderstorms will die off early this evening...otherwise VFR conditions will be found across the bulk of the region tonight. The exception will some late night MVFR cigs east of Lake Ontario...and IFR to MVFR stratus/fog across parts of the Srn Tier. Outlook... Sunday and Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely. Wednesday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds will pick up today, following the passage of a cold front. Conditions will approach small craft criteria on Lake Erie today, with southwesterly winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots at times this afternoon. Elsewhere winds pick up but will remain below sca criteria. High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes Sunday and into the start of next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions through mid week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds and limited waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake breezes to form each day. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...JJR/Thomas AVIATION...RSH MARINE...Apffel/TMA