450
FXUS61 KBTV 111101
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
701 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rain that has caused flash flooding is lifting north and
east out of the forecast area this morning. Rivers are on the
rise and cresting this morning, some within flood stages.
Precipitation will become isolated to scattered today, gradually
drying out into the weekend. Temperatures will remain warm and
humid, increasing over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 638 AM EDT Thursday...Main focus in operations this
morning has been to make a gradual shift from Flash Flood
Warnings to Areal Flood Warnings, monitoring numerous river
gages that are in or approaching flood stages, and gathering
rainfall amounts to eventually put together a storm total
rainfall map for this event. Rain showers are lighter and more
scattered this morning than they were yesterday, but they`re
returning nonetheless, and some areas are experiencing foggy or
misty conditions this morning. Forecast is overall on track.

Previous discussion...As heavy rain shifts north and east of
the forecast area this morning, we continue to watch river rises
and cresting throughout the day today. If you live near the
Winooski, Mad, Missisquoi, Passumpsic, Ausable, Lamoille, Great
Chazy, and Wells rivers, be aware of how you might be affected
by moderate to major river flooding at water.noaa.gov, which has
an impact list for where the most impacts occur at various
river levels. More on the specifics of this hydrological threat
in the hydro section.

We`re anticipating some pop-up showers throughout the day today as
the center of Beryl`s rotation finally crosses the forecast area.
Chances of precipitation will be 10-50%, with highest chances
stretched from the Adirondacks to the Northeast Kingdom, which is
unfortunately the primary area that received heavy rain over the
last 24 hours. While these showers are not expected to be nearly as
heavy as the recent activity, soils are well saturated and will have
difficulty taking on more rain, and this may make for poor cleanup
conditions. We`re expecting up to a quarter of an inch of
additional rainfall in spots today, likely less than that for
most. High temperatures will be around seasonal averages in the
mid-70s to upper 80s, with warmest temperatures concentrated in
the southern Connecticut River and Champlain valleys.

Tonight will be a drier, mild night with lows in the 60s for most
places. Patchy fog is possible in the typical valley locations where
rain has occurred and light/variable winds are forecast. Tomorrow
will be a fairly pleasant day for cleanup efforts with highs in the
upper 70s to mid-80s and mostly dry weather. There could be a few
light, isolated showers across terrain, but generally chances are
low and no measurable precipitation is anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Thursday...Friday will be a good day for recovery
from any flooding experienced Wednesday and Thursday. Skies will
gradually clear throughout the day as the remnants of Beryl get a
little more distant from our CWA. We could see some light scattered
showers in Saint Lawrence county as well as far northern Vermont,
but measurable precipitation will be isolated. Heat values will
remain above normal for most of the area primarily being driven by
consistently high surface moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure to our east will keep us
dry through the weekend. A warming trend will continue through
Sunday, with temperatures reaching into the low 90s in the Champlain
and Connecticut river valleys. Early next week we are looking at a
low pressure system transversing along the international border,
bringing a threat of thunderstorms. We will continue to refine the
timing and impacts as the models converge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Thick, soupy, tropical moisture is crossing
our forecast area today associated with the remnants of Beryl.
All sites have MVFR or lower conditions as of this morning
whether in the form of low visibilities in mist/fog (roughly 1
mile) or low ceilings with cigs 300-2100 feet above ground
level. As the remnants of Beryl swirl across the St. Lawrence
Valley, sites closest to this portion of the forecast area will
experience MVFR or lower conditions for the next 24 hours. Those
farthest from Beryl (RUT, MPV) will likely break out into VFR
conditions for several hours this afternoon. However, cigs and
vis will trend downward again 00Z Friday onward as high pressure
and subsidence increases chances of fog over very saturated
soils once again. Winds will be light and variable or terrain
based for much of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 644 AM EDT Thursday...Showers this morning are much
lighter than we`ve seen so far with this system, and are
anticipated to bring an additional 0.10-0.30" of rain through
this evening.

The most significant flooding is occurring near Barre,
Williamstown, Groton, Barnet, Lyndonville, and Marshfield where
4 to 5, locally over 6 inches has fallen. Expect numerous road
washouts, debris flows, evacuations in central Vermont, and
water in homes and businesses.

Convection placed itself near the headwaters of several
mainstem rivers. Several rivers may crest near major flood
stage. Visit water.noaa.gov for details on impacts for area
rivers and additional details with changes to the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for VTZ001>010-016>018.
NY...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NYZ028-031-034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Storm
HYDROLOGY...Team BTV