635
FXUS61 KBTV 040517
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
117 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will remain gusty from the south this evening, then
diminish during the overnight hours as a front moves through.
Some scattered rain showers are expected overnight but any
lingering rain showers will come to an end by Thursday morning.
Quiet weather is expected Thursday through Friday before
shower/thunderstorm chances increase Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 117 AM EDT Thursday...Showers continue to be widely
scattered along a weak surface boundary moving through the
region with no thunder detected. Thus, have removed thunder from
the forecast for the remainder of the night, and showers will
continue to be scattered while shifting eastward through the
region through sunrise before dissipating and exiting east.
Lows will be quite mild in the mid 60s for most locations,
though locally only lower 70s in portions of the Champlain and
St. Lawrence Valleys.

For Thursday morning, the front and associated rain showers will
clear to the east, and most areas will remain dry for the rest of
the day.  However, there will be some vorticity maxima moving
through the progressive flow aloft which could trigger an isolated
shower/tstorm or two. Some very marginal instability will develop,
with stronger instability potential hindered by poor mid-level lapse
rates. In addition, will see drier air working in from the west
which will also limit shower/tstorm potential. All said and
done, have capped PoPs generally in the 5 to 15 percent range
for Thursday. Highs will range from the low to upper 80s, with
dewpoints in the 60s. Heat indices will briefly climb into the
low 90s in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys, but will
remain in the 80s elsewhere. Lows Thursday night will be int he
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will dominate the region
Friday, bringing slightly above normal temperatures. The
experimental heat risk product is showing `moderate` risk for most
of our CWA on Friday and Saturday. Humidity levels will remain
elevated as well during this period, with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s. By late Friday night, the Saint Lawrence Valley will see
PoPs increase in advance of a low pressure passing through.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...The low pressure will continue its
transit through the CWA during the day Saturday. The passage of this
system has the potential to bring the most impactful weather of the
long term forecast. Ensemble forecasts are consistently showing
thermodynamics that would support thunderstorm development, with
1.5" of PWAT these thunderstorms have the potential to create
localized heavy rainfall. The good news is the better dynamics
continue to be south of our CWA.

High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday, bringing back our clear
skies and above normal temperatures. At the far end of the forecast,
one more trough of low pressure will pass over the northeast by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period with local MVFR at KMSS and KSLK through 09-12Z.
Otherwise, scattered showers through 12Z may briefly reduce vsby
to MVFR/IFR but too difficult to forecast explicitly so just
mentioned VCSH. After 12Z, BKN ceilings lift to SCT for the
remainder of the period, continuing as VFR. Winds will also
lower significantly through the period, only gusting above 20kts
at KBTV through about 08Z, then lowering to 6kts or less after
12Z from the SSW. Areas of LLWS additionally shift east of the
region by sunrise.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for south winds in the 25
to 35 knot range. These winds will continue this evening before
diminishing to 15 to 25 knots overnight. Waves today will be in
the 1-3 foot range. Will likely be able to take down the Lake
Wind Advisory in the Thursday morning hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Lahiff
MARINE...Neiles