530
FXUS64 KBRO 061912
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
212 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A mid-level trough settles in across the central CONUS, giving
Beryl an open avenue to work northward along the western Gulf of
Mexico into Texas and then north to northeast toward the Ohio
River Valley. By tonight, Beryl may be approaching hurricane
strength again as it works towards the lower Texas coastal waters.
On Sunday, the system is expected to move north across the
offshore Gulf of Mexico waters as a hurricane from mid to late
morning through Sunday night, bringing the bulk of the local
impacts to mainly the coast, including convective bands of heavy
rainfall, some coastal run-up or storm surge, life-threatening rip
currents, high surf, low visibility, isolated waterspouts or
tornadoes. Overall, the impact footprint across Deep South Texas
is shrinking and for most in the Rio Grande Valley and brush
country, it may be a relatively normal-ish cloudy summer Sunday
and Sunday night with a breeze. Hurricane Watches, Tropical Storm
Warnings, and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect.

At the beach, expect surf conditions to become increasingly more
dangerous into this evening and through the remainder of the short
term, with life-threatening rip currents. A Rip Current Statement
is in effect through Monday afternoon. Narrow beaches may start
to become impassable tonight due to arriving swell as Beryl churns
up just off our Gulf coast.

We will continue to monitor the progress of Beryl as it
intensifies in the Western Gulf of Mexico this evening through
Sunday night. Make sure you are relying on trusted sources of
information for updates, such as the National Weather Service,
National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county officials,
etc, over the next several days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Beryl is now expected to generally be north of Deep South Texas by
Monday morning, making landfall near daybreak Monday along the
Coastal Bend as a hurricane. The intensity forecast may see an
update or two before landfall, with NHC currently sitting with a
Category 1 hurricane. All coastal impacts will continue,
especially rip current risk, but generally improve into Tuesday
along the lower Texas coast.

NBM maintains a weak onshore flow through the remainder of the
forecast period locally, with abundant tropical moisture waning
into Thursday. This would be a good setup for scattered daily sea
breeze convection Tuesday into Thursday, becoming more isolated
each day. Depending on subsidence to the west side of the tropical
system, the chance of rain may quickly diminish in model guidance
following Beryl. The best chance of rain would remain offshore
with any streamer showers. Temperatures would likely be above
normal across the brush country and most of the Rio Grande Valley
Monday into Tuesday, with near normal temperatures Wednesday,
gradually warming each day through Saturday. Heat Indices could
spike to near Heat Advisory criteria for the mid to upper RGV
Monday and mid to lower RGV and coastal counties on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions at the TAF sites now. Few to scattered low clouds
for mainly eastern sections and light southeast winds. A weak sea
breeze is underway near the coast. A Beryl rain band is offshore.
High clouds will increase with deeper tropical moisture this
afternoon through tonight. VFR ceilings will develop this evening
and tonight along with increased rain chances. Though rain
chances will increase tonight, and prob groups show up in the
TAFs, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on
Sunday, focused more heavily on Brownsville and Harlingen rather
than McAllen. Breezy and gusty north to northeast winds will
prevail on Sunday as Beryl moves north over the West Gulf. The
track of Beryl is currently running roughly offshore parallel to
the coast, minimizing the worst impacts, but any rainbands moving
across will amplify the wind, rain, and lightning threat, with
MVFR ceilings in local convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Today through next Saturday...Generally favorable marine
conditions today will quickly deteriorate and give way to life-
threatening conditions as Beryl approaches and intensifies across
the coastal waters or just beyond. Elevated swells are beginning
to work across the Gulf and are expected to increase through
Sunday as Beryl runs north across our offshore waters. Beryl is
expected strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane and may intensify
further into Monday, potentially making landfall near daybreak
Monday morning along the Coastal Bend. The National Hurricane
Center noted the storm may intensify more in the final 12 hours
before landfall. As with any tropical system, the convective bands
could contain torrential rainfall, damaging winds, elevated seas,
little to no visibility, and waterspouts.

By Tuesday, most conditions will begin to gradually improve into
late week with light onshore flow and streamer showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  90  81  93 /  30  70  50  50
HARLINGEN               75  92  77  96 /  10  60  50  50
MCALLEN                 78  95  80 100 /   0  30  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  98  79 101 /   0  10  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  87  81  87 /  40  80  70  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  90  78  92 /  30  70  60  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Watch for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     Storm Surge Watch for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...54-BHM