821
FXUS64 KBRO 070845
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
345 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical cyclone Beryl continues to be the dominant weather feature
during this portion of the total forecast. Currently a tropical
storm over the western Gulf of Mexico, Beryl is forecast to
strengthen into a hurricane and persist in its march towards the
Middle Texas Coast, eventually making landfall during the pre-
dawn hours of Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane
Watch are currently in effect for the island and coastal portions
of Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties, with a Storm Surge Watch
also in effect for the shoreline of this same area. In the event
that the Tropical Storm Warning, Hurricane Watch, and Storm Surge
Watch are cancelled before sunset Monday, a Coastal Flood Warning,
High Surf Warning, Wind Advisory, and High Risk of rip currents
would likely be needed due to the anticipated effects of Beryl.

Temperature-wise, above normal to well above normal values will
occur through the period. Heat indices currently do not support the
expectation of a HEAT ADVISORY for today, but the indices do support
a HEAT ADVISORY for nearly all of Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley on Monday due to compressional outflow from passing
Beryl.

Finally, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today will
reduce to isolated to scattered convection on Monday, with the
greatest chance for precipitation forecast to be for the immediate
three coastal counties, barrier island, and the lower Texas coastal
waters. A Flood Watch is not likely to be needed, aided by the fact
that Abnormally Dry conditions exist within large swaths of Cameron,
Willacy, and Hidalgo counties, per the latest drought map.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Beryl is forecast to track further inland across east Texas Monday
night into Tuesday. All coastal impacts will likely continue into
Monday night, especially the rip current risk, but beach conditions
will generally improve on Tuesday along the lower Texas coast.
However, the rip current risk may remain elevated through midweek
due to residual long period swells. NBM maintains rain chances for
Tuesday through Thursday as abundant tropical moisture remains in
place. The combination of weak onshore flow and lingering tropical
moisture will lead to scattered daily sea breeze convection Tuesday
into Thursday. The best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms
should be on Wednesday as a surge of even deeper tropical moisture
arrives. Latest guidance suggest PWATs between 2.25 to 2.50 inches
will be possible across much of Deep South Texas on Wednesday.
Abundant tropical moisture begins to wane by Friday as mid-level
ridge builds into the region.

Above normal temperatures will be likely across the brush country
and most of the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday, with near normal
temperatures on Wednesday, gradually warming each day through
Saturday. Heat Indices could spike to near Heat Advisory criteria
for the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley and coastal counties on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Very light winds with mid to high level clouds prevail across Deep
South Texas early this morning. Mainly VFR conditions with light
to moderate north to northeast winds are expected overnight as
the local pattern continues to be influenced by approaching
Beryl. Beryl should be a around 120 NM east of Brownsville at
around 7 AM this morning. Northwest to northeast winds are
expected to increase and become breezy to windy later this morning
into the afternoon. Rain bands will move over the area
periodically, producing showers, thunderstorms, lightning, and
gusty winds. MVFR conditions, possibly IFR, could become
prevailing at times with reduced ceilings and visibility in heave
downpours. TAFS include PROB30 groups beginning later this morning for
thunderstorm activity. The area is in a general thunderstorm
outlook, but can`t completely rule out a brief, isolated tornado
in rainbands.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Today through Monday: Buoy 42020 reported north-northeast winds
around 14 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly
under 3.5 feet with a period of 11 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC.
Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to gradually strengthen into a
hurricane and track northwest towards the Middle Texas Coast
during the period. Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate,
even becoming dangerous by sunset today. A Tropical Storm Warning
and a Hurricane Warning are currently in effect for specific
portions of the Laguna Madre and Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to
60 nautical miles offshore until further notice. In the event that
the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Warning are cancelled
before sunset Monday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory and/or
Gale Warning may be needed along the Lower Texas Coast due to the
anticipated dangerous winds and seas produced by Beryl.

Monday night through Saturday...Adverse conditions from Beryl may
linger into Monday night with elevated winds and seas. Conditions
will gradually improve Tuesday into Wednesday with light to moderate
southerly winds and moderate seas. More favorable conditions are
expected by the end of the week as high pressure builds across the
Gulf. Streamer showers will be possible at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  82  97  81 /  70  40  30  10
HARLINGEN               93  77  98  78 /  60  30  30  10
MCALLEN                 97  80 101  81 /  30  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         99  80 102  79 /  10  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  82  90  83 /  80  50  30  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  80  96  80 /  70  40  40  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Watch for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     Storm Surge Watch for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...63-KC