638
FXUS64 KBRO 040545 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Slightly above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions will
prevail through the 4th of July holiday across Deep South Texas.
Mid/upper level ridging will remain centered over the Southeastern
US with broad surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico,
which will maintain persistent low level southerly to
southeasterly flow. The combination of elevated dew points and
slightly above normal temperatures will result in heat indices
ranging from around 100 to 110 degrees during the afternoon hours
on 4th of July. While it is not expected to reach Heat Advisory
criteria, those spending time outdoors during the afternoon and
early evening hours should remember to follow heat safety
precautions to prevent heat-related illnesses. Remember to stay
hydrated, take breaks in the shade, and wear light, loose-fitting
clothing. Otherwise, mild and humid nights are expected tonight
and Thursday night with lows ranging from the mid 70s across the
Northern Ranchlands to low 80s along the immediate coast.

While we are planning 4th of July holiday and weekend
festivities, make sure you are also reviewing your hurricane
season preparedness plans as Hurricane Beryl continues to track
toward Yucatan Peninsula through the end the week and into the Bay
of Campeche this weekend. Make sure you are relying on trusted
sources of information for updates, such as the National Weather
Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county
officials, etc. over the next several days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

This portion of the forecast is highly dependent on Hurricane
Beryl. To summarize the NHC: At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center
of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 17.3 North,
longitude 76.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest
near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion should continue
through today, followed by a turn more toward the west tonight or
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center is expected to pass
near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move
over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early
Friday.

While there is still much uncertainty in the track and intensity
of Beryl in the West Gulf for Friday and beyond, confidence is
increasing for deep South Texas to see impacts this weekend into
early next week. There is a chance now that the lower Texas coast
and coastal counties may see tropical storm force winds as early
as Saturday night, with the highest likelihood Sunday morning.
WPC places most of the CWA in a slight risk of excessive rainfall
Sunday morning to Monday morning (Day5). Besides higher rain
chances and the possibility of significant total rainfall
accumulation beginning Saturday through next Wednesday (4 to 7
inches with isolated locally higher amounts of 6 to 8 inches),
beach and coastal conditions will deteriorate with high surf, high
rip risk, and coastal flooding all in the mix.

Residents of deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley should
monitor the progress of Beryl through the end of the week and into
the weekend. With any tropical system possibly making landfall
near Brownsville, heavy rain with possible flooding, strong winds
with possible damage and power outages, isolated tornadoes, and
high surf with severe beach erosion (at the local beaches) will be
a distinct possibility. To what extent these things occur will be
determined by the evolution of Beryl as she treks (based on the
current forecast) across the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the cycle.
Southeasterly winds be mostly light during the overnight hours,
but will become gust again during the late morning/early
afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Thanks to the
southeasterly flow, a few low-level clouds are likely to be
persistent over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Tonight through Thursday night...Low to moderate winds and
generally favorable seas will prevail through the period as high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico persists. Winds will be just
below Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions tomorrow afternoon.

Friday through Monday night...East to southeast winds will become
moderate to fresh with building seas in the long term. A lot will
depend on the endgame of Beryl as it moves into and through the
Southwest Gulf. The current forecast suggests small craft advisory
conditions on the Gulf beginning as early as Saturday.
Furthermore, it is reasonable to assume that marine conditions
will deteriorate through Sunday, becoming dangerous Sunday and
into early Monday. The forecast timing and track suggest that
marine conditions may improve later Monday and especially on
Tuesday as Beryl moves deeper into Texas or North Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  96  79  95 /   0   0   0  20
HARLINGEN               77  98  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 79 100  79  98 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         77 100  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  88  83  88 /   0   0   0  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  93  79  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...64-Katz