Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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843 FXUS64 KBRO 071639 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1139 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Tropical cyclone Beryl continues to be the dominant weather feature during this portion of the total forecast. Currently a tropical storm over the western Gulf of Mexico, Beryl is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and persist in its march towards the Middle Texas Coast, eventually making landfall during the pre- dawn hours of Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are currently in effect for the island and coastal portions of Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties, with a Storm Surge Watch also in effect for the shoreline of this same area. In the event that the Tropical Storm Warning, Hurricane Watch, and Storm Surge Watch are cancelled before sunset Monday, a Coastal Flood Warning, High Surf Warning, Wind Advisory, and High Risk of rip currents would likely be needed due to the anticipated effects of Beryl. Temperature-wise, above normal to well above normal values will occur through the period. Heat indices currently do not support the expectation of a HEAT ADVISORY for today, but the indices do support a HEAT ADVISORY for nearly all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Monday due to compressional outflow from passing Beryl. Finally, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today will reduce to isolated to scattered convection on Monday, with the greatest chance for precipitation forecast to be for the immediate three coastal counties, barrier island, and the lower Texas coastal waters. A Flood Watch is not likely to be needed, aided by the fact that Abnormally Dry conditions exist within large swaths of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo counties, per the latest drought map. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Beryl is forecast to track further inland across east Texas Monday night into Tuesday. All coastal impacts will likely continue into Monday night, especially the rip current risk, but beach conditions will generally improve on Tuesday along the lower Texas coast. However, the rip current risk may remain elevated through midweek due to residual long period swells. NBM maintains rain chances for Tuesday through Thursday as abundant tropical moisture remains in place. The combination of weak onshore flow and lingering tropical moisture will lead to scattered daily sea breeze convection Tuesday into Thursday. The best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms should be on Wednesday as a surge of even deeper tropical moisture arrives. Latest guidance suggest PWATs between 2.25 to 2.50 inches will be possible across much of Deep South Texas on Wednesday. Abundant tropical moisture begins to wane by Friday as mid-level ridge builds into the region. Above normal temperatures will be likely across the brush country and most of the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday, with near normal temperatures on Wednesday, gradually warming each day through Saturday. Heat Indices could spike to near Heat Advisory criteria for the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley and coastal counties on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Rainbands from Beryl ongoing. AWW out for KBRO until 6 PM for cloud to ground lightning and excessive rainfall in tropical convection. Breezy to strong and gusty northwest winds, especially near the coast. Conditions are VFR except MVFR at KBRO. That pattern should continue with MVFR ceilings in heavier showers/tstorms. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue today, transitioning to more of a shower situation tonight. Northwest winds will shift to south and weaken late tonight. Plenty of mid and upper clouds will remain regardless of low clouds. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Today through Monday: Buoy 42020 reported north-northeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly under 3.5 feet with a period of 11 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to gradually strengthen into a hurricane and track northwest towards the Middle Texas Coast during the period. Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate, even becoming dangerous by sunset today. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Warning are currently in effect for specific portions of the Laguna Madre and Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore until further notice. In the event that the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Warning are cancelled before sunset Monday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory and/or Gale Warning may be needed along the Lower Texas Coast due to the anticipated dangerous winds and seas produced by Beryl. Monday night through Saturday...Adverse conditions from Beryl may linger into Monday night with elevated winds and seas. Conditions will gradually improve Tuesday into Wednesday with light to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas. More favorable conditions are expected by the end of the week as high pressure builds across the Gulf. Streamer showers will be possible at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 82 97 81 / 70 40 30 10 HARLINGEN 93 77 98 78 / 60 30 30 10 MCALLEN 97 80 101 81 / 30 10 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 80 102 79 / 10 10 20 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 82 90 83 / 80 50 30 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 80 96 80 / 70 40 40 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170. Hurricane Warning for GMZ175. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...54-BHM