Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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271 FXUS64 KBRO 050553 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A warm Independence Day continues across Deep South Texas with breezy southeasterly winds. Heat Indices this afternoon may reach 110 degrees in a few locations, but remain below Heat Advisory criteria. Overall, a rather quiet short term for the beginning of the holiday weekend, as the mid-level ridge holds across the Southeast and high pressure builds at the surface. Expect seasonal to just slightly above normal temperatures, with near zero POPs through Friday night. Perfect weather to continue or finish up any hurricane preparations at home, clearing yards and patios of anything that can be thrown around, and clearing ditches or drain grates of anything that could impede drainage into next week. We will continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Beryl as it moves towards the Yucatan Peninsula into tomorrow. Make sure you are relying on trusted sources of information for updates, such as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county officials, etc, over the next several days. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Key message: - Beryl barreling slowly toward deep South Texas and the RGV - Uncertainty continues about Beryl`s track and strength Sunday and Monday - Deteriorating marine and coastal conditions from Saturday on - Flooding rain possible for all of deep South Texas Sunday and Monday NHC summary: At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 83.4 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking the core of Beryl away from the Cayman Islands this afternoon and then over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Saturday weather will reflect summertime conditions for deep South Texas and the RGV. Although there may be a few tropical showers or thunderstorms over the Gulf, daytime weather conditions will be partly cloudy with light east winds and high temperatures in the 90s to near 100 with peak afternoon heat index values from 103 to 108 degrees. As Beryl nears the lower Texas coast on its current forecast track, cloudiness and rain chances will increase for Saturday night, especially for coastal areas. Rain chances will ramp up in earnest Sunday and Monday. Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the Northeast Mexican coast early Monday morning as a marginal category one hurricane. There is still some uncertainty with the landfall point, however. and it could shift north or south in future forecasts. Rain bands will spread over deep South Texas and the RGV leading up to landfall. WPC excessive rainfall forecasts depict the CWA in a slight risk of excessive rainfall (that which would exceed flash flood guidance). A slight risk is a 15 to 39% chance of exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of any given forecast point. Cumulative rainfall estimates from Saturday through Wednesday are currently in the 4 to 6 inch range with isolated 6 to 8 inch amounts possible. These amounts have been trending higher. Once Beryl gets into the open Gulf, more focus will shine on overall rainfall amounts. Other hazards ramping up Saturday night into Sunday include a high risk of rip currents, storm surge, damaging to destructive coastal wave action including coastal flooding and high surf and tropical storm force winds. As Beryl moves inland on Monday, if she remains on the current track, deep South Texas and the RGV would be on the north side of the storm, looking at an increased risk of tornadoes. Once Beryl makes landfall and moves inland, she will quickly weaken, with the chance of the remnant storm moving along the Rio Grande and gifting the area and reservoirs with additional water. The weather elements provided by various models have differed to some extent and it has been challenging to integrate everything. Used the NBM generally with some areas of modification intended to improve the updated forecast. Beryl should be out of the picture, with the last traces somewhere over the interior of Texas by Tuesday or Wednesday and most hazards should diminish, but unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for the duration, through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Satellite loops show patches of lower ceilings straddling MVFR- VFR heights. These cloud decks look to persist up until a few hours before sunrise Friday before becoming more scattered. VFR prevails through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Southeast winds remain light tonight increasing to moderate levels Friday afternoon with gusts 20-25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Now through Friday Night...Marine conditions to kick off the holiday weekend remain generally favorable with light to moderate southeasterly winds and low seas. Saturday through Tuesday night...Onshore winds will range from moderate to strong, tending more toward strong for late weekend to the end of the forecast, with seas building to high as Beryl makes its way across the Southwest and West Gulf of Mexico. This will result in at least small craft advisory conditions. However, tropical storm watches will be possible based on the latest NHC forecast. Marine conditions will deteriorate Saturday night and become hazardous by Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 95 79 89 / 0 20 30 70 HARLINGEN 75 95 76 92 / 0 20 20 70 MCALLEN 78 98 77 93 / 0 10 20 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 98 76 94 / 0 10 10 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 88 81 86 / 0 20 30 70 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 78 89 / 0 20 30 70 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....54-BHM AVIATION...59-GB