828
FXUS61 KBOX 071854
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
254 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid weather conditions continue this week. Still
fairly humid, though temperatures are slightly less hot, along
with better rain and thunderstorm chances late week as the
remnants of Beryl moves towards the Northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid level cap still evident with the radar largely quiet.
Scattered cumulus on the visible satellite imagery, but not much
else. Stratus persisted across portions of the Cape and islands
this afternoon, and will only expand after sunset in the very humid
air. Thinking this stratus will stay generally south and east of
a line from Marshfield to Smithfield to Willimantic. Areas of
fog also should expand, and will issue an Special Weather
Statement to account for some patchy dense fog.

Not much change in low temperatures from past nights given the
high humidity continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Yet another day of heat and humidity for Monday. Mid level dry
air gets event deeper, meaning even less risk for showers. based
on the 2-day threshold of heat indices 95 or greater, will go
forward with a Heat Advisory start Monday where confidence is
highest. To keep things simpler, will continue the headline
through Monday night even though heat index values are expected
to fall back into the 70s. It is likely this Heat Advisory will
be expanded with later forecasts.

Above normal temperatures and humidity continue.

Stratus around the Cape and islands could linger through Monday
night, although do expect some improvement during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights:

* Hot and humid conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, turning
  seasonably warm and still quite humid towards later in the
  week.

* Daily shower chances Tuesday and Wednesday, potentially
  widespread  rainfall late in week with the arrival of the
  remnants of Beryl.

Little change to the forecast with the synoptic pattern
featuring a mid-level ridge of high pressure centered over
Bermuda. This type of setup continues the persistent southwest
flow, which funnels higher than normal moisture into southern
New England. Additionally, 850mb temperatures Monday through
Friday do stay above normal, which boils down to a warm/hot and
humid week ahead. Getting caught up in this deep southwest flow
are bursts of shortwave energy that will ride the outer
periphery of the subtropical ridge, leading to periods of rain
and thunderstorms.

Temperatures:

There is fairly good model agreement that Tuesday and Wednesday
will be rather hot, with 925mb temperatures forecast between
+24C to +26C and this would lead to surface temperatures
between the upper 80s and lower 90s. That said, the southwest
winds will lead to slightly `cooler` temperatures along the
southern coast of Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts
around the lower 80s. And when you combine the high dew points,
it will feel much hotter. Heat Index values on Tuesday are
between 95F and 99F for much of the Connecticut River Valley and
I-495 corridor. More in the way of clouds on Wednesday will
probably result in somewhat lesser values, between 90F and 95F
in similar locations. Late week, 925mb settle at +20C to +22C
with slightly more seasonable highs in the lower to middle 80s.
But will not come with any relief from the high humidity.

Precipitation:

As we`ve discussed the past couple of days there is no large
scale forcing to be had due to vast mid-level/subtropical
ridge. There are bursts of shortwave energy on Tuesday and
Wednesday that will promote pop-up showers and thunderstorms.
Given the high PWATs, localized heavy downpours could be
expected with any given cell that develops.

Later in the week, PWAT anomaly are 2-3 standard deviation above
normal, much of this moisture is from remnant Beryl. At this
point in time there is more large scale lift, this should
promote more widespread rainfall Thursday into Friday. WPC does
highlight our region in a marginal risk for days 4 and 5 for
excessive rainfall which is something to monitor as we head late
into the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight and Monday: Moderate confidence.

IFR-LIFR fog and stratus from the daytime hrs over the south
coast, Cape and Islands returns northward tonight; best chance
for PVD and the Cape/ACK, though it is possible it could slip
northward into the BOS-ORH-BDL areas. Where it does develop,
improvement should take place Monday morning, soonest north and
west and later/afternoon towards the southeast coast. Light
winds tonight and Monday, with seabreezes at BOS and PVD.

Monday Night...Moderate confidence.

Generally VFR away from RI and southeast MA. There IFR should
be prevalent with local LIFR.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with seabreezes likely
to develop. Low (< 10%) chance at SHRA/TS until sundown, but
greatest risk to the south. Stratus is possible again after 04z
Mon, but better chance southeast.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Stratus could develop
after 02z Mon, but better chance southeast.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Thursday Night through Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Monday Night...High confidence.

Relatively light winds and seas across the waters through Monday
night. The main concern will be poor visibility in fog tonight.
Visibility should improve Monday, then not get quite as low
Monday Night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/BL
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...BL
AVIATION...Belk/BL
MARINE...Belk/BL