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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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662 FXUS65 KBOU 292101 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 301 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer Sunday with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, a few strong to severe. - Continued heat across the region. - Downward trend in showers and storms beyond Tuesday.&& .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/... Issued at 216 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Satellite shows a clear picture on where the instability has developed this afternoon (although marginal in magnitude). Cumulus is in good coverage across the high country. A couple of convective showers have already initiated mainly, across the northern high country. Showers and storms are expected to continue to develop across the high country this afternoon, extending eastward to the Foothills and adjacent plains. ACARS soundings around Denver show a defined capping inversion this afternoon, an indicator that it is quite stable out there. Although temperatures are slowly warming with less cloud cover this afternoon, it will be a hard cap to break (4-6deg). This would act limit shower/storm development and won`t maintain most showers/storms that make their way off the terrain for long. More south of I-70 (south Den. Metro, foothills, South Park, Palmer Divide) will have higher chances. High-res CAMs show potential for showers and storms to move eastward off the high terrain toward early evening with greater chances for the Palmer Divide and south metro. If it does warm another several degrees, can`t rule out a strong storm or two. Later tonight shower/storms move east across southern Lincoln County with potential for localized heavier rainfall shown by HREF mean QPF/PMM. Sunday, will be warmer and a bit more unstable. The thermal ridge nudges eastward warming mid-level temperatures and with lesser low clouds will likely bring the return to 90s for the plains. West urban corridor may be just under 90s. This will depend on how much mid-level clouds stick around. MLCAPE 500-1200 J/kg and sufficient moisture and 0-6km bulk shear will support scattered showers and storms in the afternoon/early eve with a couple strong to severe storms. && .LONG TERM /Sunday night through Saturday/... Issued at 216 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Monday - Tuesday...Mid-level ridge axis begins to shift towards the east with weaker troughing trying to carve into the top of said ridging. Lingering moisture could produce some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and drift off towards the east...fairly typical pattern. Temperature-wise, we look to be at or slightly above early July averages, though Tuesday could trend cooler with the trough passage. Wednesday - Saturday...Ridging builds back in across the west by the middle part of the week sending temperatures back above average. Not really a lot of moisture around so rain chances are lower, 15-20%, but also very isolated. As mentioned by the previous shift, do we get backdoor cold fronted late in the week for a cool off and some scattered showers around the holiday or do we stay hot and dry? Still lots to watch it play out. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/... Issued at 216 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. SE to SSE winds this afternoon at 07-11 kts. The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms likely stay south of BJC and just south of DEN. Put in a VCTS for DEN after 22Z. At APA, where it is more likely, there is a TEMPO for TSRA. This will extend through early evening. Collapsing showers and storms may result in brief variable gusty outflows. With most activity to the south and southwest, this may push the more collective outflow from that direction. Enhanced southerly flow expected this evening with a few gusts 25-30kts overnight. Winds become light and variable Sunday morning becoming light N to NNE in the afternoon. There is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon (after 21Z). && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mensch LONG TERM...Heavener AVIATION...Mensch