539
FXUS65 KBOU 082312
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
512 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry with continued warming throughout the week.

- A heat wave is expected to bring temperatures into the triple
  digits across the urban corridor and plains Friday through
  Sunday. Heat related highlights will likely be needed during
  this stretch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Sun abounds today in northeast Colorado with just a few shallow
cumulus fields stretching across the plains and southern Front
Range. Outside of a possible (20% chance) weak shower or two in
Park County, dry weather will prevail for the remainder of the
day as we warm into the low 80`s.

Northwest flow aloft increases slightly tomorrow, with a marginal
increase in mid-level moisture as it circles around the NE side of
the ridge to our southwest. Even then, PWAT values will be close
to average for the date. Pockets of instability of a few hundred
J/Kg will be more likely over the high country than the lower
elevations, so slight chance to chance (15-35%) of rain seems
reasonable for our mountains Tuesday afternoon. Subsident flow and
rising heights will lead to continued warming with high
temperatures pushing 90F for much of the lower elevations, and
70`s for most mountain communities.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

As the shortwave trough exits the Great Plains, northwest flow
decreases aloft. Wednesday, instabilities of MUCAPE values near
400- 600 J/k and lapse rates between 6-7 C/km will likely support
high based scattered thunderstorms mainly over areas south of I-70
in the mountains and valleys. Storms should remain sub-severe and
produce gusty winds, lightning and small hail. Total QPF fields
are light between 0.01-0.15 thus the flood threat for burn scars
remains low. By Thursday, precipitation chances are limited but
not zero; isolated to widely scattered chances of thunderstorms
are possible for the high country through Saturday. In terms of
impacts and severe chances, storms are expected to bring gusty
winds versus rainfall as DCAPE values approach 1000-1500 J/kg.

The main impact in the long-term forecast will be the incoming
prolong heat. As the 500mb ridge sits over Colorado Friday through
Sunday, 700mb temperatures soar between 19-23C. This pattern will
bring drier air and  light winds to the forecast area; light winds
should keep fire weather conditions low while widespread low
relative humidities are expected Friday through Sunday. Ensemble
guidance indicates near record highs for majority of the urban
corridor and plains. There is high confidence that above normal
temperatures will occur for the entire region Friday through Sunday.
Heat highlights could be considered for this time period especially
due to multiple cities with highs near the low 100s and warm lows
near the mid to upper 60s.

As the upper level ridge flattens, there is enough mid level
moisture wrapped between the next incoming shortwave trough where
isolated to scattered chances of storms could return for the high
country next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 512 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only FEW-SCT
clouds above 10,000 ft AGL for the Denver TAF sites. Light and
fairly normal diurnal wind patterns expected with speeds 10 kts
or less. Could see a little bump in northerly winds after 20Z
Tuesday with a few embedded gusts to 15-17 kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rodriguez
LONG TERM...AD
AVIATION...Barjenbruch