580
FXUS65 KBOU 072035
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
235 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today across much of
  the plains, particularly east and southeast of Denver.

- Drier starting Monday with a prolonged warming trend kicking
  off.

- Starting Thursday through next weekend, prolong well above
  normal temperatures are likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Satellite imagery exemplifying today`s setup, with shallow
strati-cu streaming westward and slowly but steadily advecting in
better low-level moisture under an upslope flow regime. Meanwhile,
thunderstorms have developed across northern Larimer and Weld
Counties and is gradually pushing southeastward, with some
secondary focal points for initiation beginning to show up across
the foothills and north of Pikes Peak.

Not much has changed with respect to the forecast over the past
few hours. As convection continues marching into the plains, it
will begin to encounter a more favorable environment for
strengthening with moderate MLCAPE of 500-1,000 J/Kg and, more
notably, impressive deep-layer shear which could exceed 50 kts per
SPC`s latest mesoanalysis forecasts, roughly coinciding with the
Slight Risk area. Still anticipate comparatively lesser coverage
for locations roughly along and west of I-25, where instability
will be a little more marginal and dewpoints may struggle to crack
50 degrees. The greater threat for severe weather will be
concentrated along an axis from Morgan County southward into
Elbert and Lincoln Counties. Since early this morning, guidance
has come into quite good agreement when it comes to the
progression of today`s convection. As far as timing is concerned,
expect the main window for severe weather threats and large hail
to be through mid evening, although it`s possible we could see
some convection linger across the southernmost portion of our
forecast area through late evening.

Looking ahead into Monday, the trough will have moved due east of
Colorado with subsident northwest flow filling in aloft. We`ll be
quite a bit more stable and any afternoon showers or storms should
be isolated, generally confined to our southern mountains and Park
County where we`ll see light southerly winds near the surface and
thus enhanced orographics. Otherwise, expect a much drier day,
kicking off a prolonged warming trend. There`s high confidence in
Monday being the coolest day of this upcoming week. Highs will be
near normal, mostly in the low to mid 80`s in the plains, and 70`s
for most mountain communities.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Not many changes to the overall long term forecast period. As the
shortwave trough exits, lingering mid level moisture could lead to
weak diurnal convection for areas above eight thousand feet each
afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. Storms will likely remain sub-
severe due to a lack of shear and instability. This should also
keep the flood threat low for the burn areas.

Starting Thursday, an upper level ridge finally arrives over
Colorado. Cross sections indicate dry air throughout the 500-700mb
layer. With the lack of moisture, only isolated chances (10-20%)
of thunderstorms exists for Park, Summit, and Clear Creek counties.
With strong ensemble agreement, widespread upper 90s to low 100s
are likely starting Thursday through next weekend. NBM handles max
temperatures well across the region. This heat may lead to
tied/break max temperature records especially east of I-25.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Stratus has largely dissipated across Denver area terminals with
the bulk of lower CIGS mostly limited to areas southeast of the
metro region. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all
terminals from here on out.

Confidence is increasing in the development of thunderstorms mid
afternoon, with greatest coverage and intensity from KDEN
eastward. A few of the stronger storms could produce brief vis
reductions to 3-6SM under the heavier cores, but this would be
isolated and the chance of this occurring at KDEN is quite low
(~15%). Bases are expected to range between 060 and 070, bud
hedging closer to the higher end of the range for this afternoon.

ENE winds over the next few hours should gradually become more NNE
near mid afternoon, with speeds generally 12-16 kts. However,
occasional gusts of 25-35 kts will be possible late afternoon in
the vicinity of any TS.

Expect activity to diminish after 01Z Mon with a quick reduction
in wind speeds through the evening. Drainage flow will generally
prevail overnight, but should be fairly light. No convection is
anticipated on Monday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rodriguez
LONG TERM...AD
AVIATION...Rodriguez