226
FXUS65 KBOI 030257
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
857 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry conditions will continue this
evening, with just a few cumulus clouds over the West Central
Mountains. Northwesterly flow will persist through Wednesday,
keeping temperatures slightly below normal. A weak shortwave
passing to the northeast will tighten the pressure gradient
enough to bring stronger winds across south-central Idaho on
Wednesday afternoon. Low humidity (10 to 15 percent) combined
with wind gusts up to 40 MPH will create favorable fire weather
conditions, with a 20-40% chance of gusts exceeding 40 MPH.

Later this week into early next week, a significant shift
towards a large upper-level ridge over the region is heavily
favored by the available guidance. Confidence is high for a
period of hot temperatures, with highs exceeding 100 degrees for
several days. The hottest days of the year are expected between
Sunday (7/7) and next Tuesday (7/9). No updates are needed at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. High density altitude will become a factor by the
weekend into much of next week. Surface winds: N-NW 5-15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt. West winds gusting to 25-35 kt after 03/15Z at
KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds: NW 7-11 kt becoming NW
11-13 kt with gusts to 25 kt possible after 03/17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Forecast still
shows dry northwest flow dominating through Thursday night. As
a result, temperatures stay a couple degrees below normal
Wednesday and warm to normal on Thursday as a ridge begins to
build further west. Skies remain mostly sunny with no chance of
precipitation. Afternoon winds on Wednesday will be breezy as a
shortwave trough passes to our north, enhancing the surface
pressure gradient. Gusts that afternoon will be 30-40 mph in
parts of the Snake Plain including and to the east of Mountain
Home, Fairfield, and Twin Falls. The dry flow bring afternoon
RHs to the teens and single digits. While fuels aren`t quite
critical in these areas yet, a Red Flag Warning was issued for
Wednesday afternoon/evening in coordination with related
agencies. While the winds on the 4th of July are well below Red
Flag criteria, it`s still worth keeping caution in mind as the
very dry conditions continue.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...The focus of the long term
remains on the development of a strong upper ridge over the
western CONUS. The warming continues until early next week, when
the ridge axis moves overhead and should hold temperatures
fairly steady. There`s a 20-40% chance of 100+ degrees on
Friday in the lower Snake Plain and parts of SE Oregon while
Saturday onwards 100+ degrees becomes much more likely.
Afternoon high temps will be 10-15 degrees above normal, and
morning lows 5-10 degrees above normal. The slightly lower
morning low anomaly is due to very dry conditions through the
long term, and with some afternoon breeziness possible we`re
keeping an eye on the fire weather set up.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday IDZ424-426.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM