784
FXUS65 KBOI 072026
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
226 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...A strong ridge
remains off the Pacific NW coast this afternoon, with dry
northwest flow over southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon. The
northwest flow has kept temperatures a few degrees below the
forecast this afternoon and again on Monday afternoon, from
previous forecasts. Then the upper level ridge begins to move
inland on Tuesday with 3-5 degrees of warming. Temperatures
continue to warm into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The most significant
heat of the week will occur as the ridge axis passes over the
region on Wednesday, with about a 20-30% chance of the Treasure
Valley exceeding 110F. This would bring us very close to the all
time record high temperature of 111F at the Boise airport. The
heat will continue through Friday as the high pressure system
slowly moves East, continuing to threaten daily max temperature
records. HeatRisk shows widespread major impacts by Wednesday in
many areas of the Snake River Valley lasting through Saturday.
Though expect some comfort in the mornings as low temperatures
are about 35 degrees lower than afternoon highs.

By Friday night, deterministic models show good agreement in the
beginning of a weak monsoon push, with warm southerly upper
level flow allowing for some pulses of moisture into the region.
High uncertainty remains in the extent and amount of moisture
that will move into the region next weekend. However, there is
at least a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday evenings. The moisture and clouds will moderate temps
down a few degrees by Sunday, a little relief to the major heat
wave though still hot in the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and clear. High density altitude due to hot
daytime temperatures. Surface winds: NW 10-15 kt with gusts to
20 kt, becoming light and variable by Mon/04z. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR and clear. High density altitude due to hot daytime
temperatures. Winds NW 08-12 kt with gusts up to 18 kt, becoming
light and variable/southeasterly by Mon/06z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT
     Thursday night IDZ012-014-033.
     Excessive Heat Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday
     evening IDZ012-014>016-030-033.
     Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to midnight MDT Thursday
     night IDZ015-016-030.
OR...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM MDT /10 AM PDT/ Tuesday to
     midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Thursday night ORZ063.
     Excessive Heat Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday
     evening ORZ061>064.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Thursday ORZ061.
     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT
     Wednesday ORZ062.
     Excessive Heat Warning from 2 PM Monday to midnight MDT
     Thursday night ORZ064.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM