387
FXUS64 KBMX 060604
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
104 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 838 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Showers/storms continue across Central Alabama this evening. There
were still some instability pockets out there and additional
storms may develop in the next few hours in combination with small
scale storm boundaries. Other areas were receiving light
stratiform rain leftover from previous storms. Not expecting
anything near severe limits overnight, but the strongest storms
may drop 1-2 inches of rain in a short period of time. A cold
front has entered the far northwest near Hamilton. This front will
move slowly southeastward overnight. Rain chances become more
scattered to isolated after midnight. Surface dew points appear to
remain in the 70s overnight, so no huge relief on morning lows.
Drier air does move in on Saturday for the north half, it should
feel much less oppressive outside. The muggy heat and humidity
hang on south. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas near
and south of I-85.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

A boundary will move southeast through the day today, initiating
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening.
Instabilities through the afternoon will be around 3000 j/kg in a
few areas, with shear around 30-40 kts. Strong storms are expected
with a few storms approaching severe if they can tap into the
right parameters. PW values will be near max for this time of year
so any activity will drop high rainfall rates.

Tonight, instability weakens so any convection that lingers
after sunset should be more of a shower producer with isolated
thunder. The boundary is expected to push south through the night
with northwest flow setting up in areas north of the boundary,
bringing drier air to the northwestern half of the state at least.
Saturday, models differ on where that boundary will stall, which
will then determine how much coverage will occur across the state
through the afternoon. Right now, will highlight areas south of
I20 to have a chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Areas
north of I20 should have plenty of dry air from the northwesterly
flow to remain rain free.

A Heat Advisory has been issued for the afternoon Saturday in the
far southeast. If the boundary can make it farther Saturday
morning than current models anticipate, counties included may need
to be adjusted.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Deep tropical moisture will return to central Alabama through much
of the long term portion of the forecast. Having said that, I do
have a hard time buying into the daily likely to categorical POPs
that model blend based guidance suggests each afternoon. I`ve
tempered the POPs a bit each afternoon to a more climatologically
realistic POP regime. Otherwise, the hot and humid conditions
will continue. And we`ll have to watch where what will eventually
become the remnants of Beryl end up.

/61/

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Guidance progresses a front southward across the Deep South Saturday
night, suppressing an area of tropical air characterized by PWs 2.0-
2.4", to areas south of I-20. Meanwhile, TC Beryl is forecast to
emerge into the southwestern Gulf while an upper-level low swings
west toward the Carolina Coast - both combating/weakening the
ridge. Drier air situated to the north will coincide with surface
dewpoints in the mid to uppers 60s. This effectively shifts greatest
heat index values (near advisory criteria) along and south of I-85
for Sunday afternoon, and this moisture will also continue to foster
diurnal showers and thunderstorms with best coverage south of I-20.
The weakened presence of ridging appears to flip back early next
week with medium-range guidance suggesting low- to mid-level height
rises (between TC Beryl and the upper low). Tropospheric moisture
begins to spread northward toward the Tennessee Valley once again.
The increase in moisture/instability led to a more uniform 50-60% PoP
for Monday and Tuesday afternoons despite forcing details becoming
less clear. PoPs are on the decrease thereafter as the forecast
becomes a little more contingent upon where Beryl decides to go.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Rain has dissipated across the area. Look for low ceilings and
some patchy fog to develop closer to sunrise once again. The
airmass remains moist through the day today, so scattered to
numerous showers and storms will be possible. Included Prob30 at
all sites after 18z, but the highest chances will be at MGM this
afternoon. Showers may linger to around 3z before dissipating.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the period, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. No high
wind or low humidity impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  69  94  71 /  30  10  30  30
Anniston    93  72  92  74 /  50  20  40  40
Birmingham  93  74  93  75 /  40  10  40  30
Tuscaloosa  93  72  92  74 /  40  20  40  30
Calera      93  74  92  75 /  50  20  50  30
Auburn      91  74  91  74 /  70  40  70  50
Montgomery  93  74  92  74 /  80  40  70  50
Troy        93  73  92  72 /  80  40  80  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-
Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-
Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...16